In December 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 3.1 points compared to the previous month and fell to 48.8.
This loss of momentum observed in the index was driven by the services sector index falling by 2.1 points compared to the previous month to 48.1 points, while the industry sector index, although it remained above the reference value, lost 5.3 points of momentum compared to the previous month and declined to 51.4 points.
The decline observed in the services sector in this period was driven by the contraction in business volume linked to the decrease in input purchases. In industry, the sharp decrease in new orders compared to the previous month caused production to fall across the sector.
As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which stood at 48.8, fell to its lowest level of the last 4 months and came in below the reference value of 50 points for the first time since the August 2021 period.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 5.3 points in December 2021 compared to the previous month and fell to the level of 51.4.
New orders, which fell by 8.0 points at once compared to the previous month to the level of 49.6, were the determining factor in the loss of momentum recorded across the industry sector in this period.
With the increases in input costs continuing in this period as well, firms were seen to maintain their advance purchases, and despite the contraction observed in new orders, purchases rose by 4.1 points to the level of 78.6. Despite the increase in purchases, the contraction recorded in new orders led to an increase in the finished goods stock, and this sub-index, which rose by 8.5 points at once compared to the previous month, stood at the level of 50.6 points. The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which declined by 5.6 points in this period to the level of 49.9, also indicates that firms experienced disruptions in their supply processes.
As a result of these developments, the production sub-index for the industry sector declined by 8.7 points compared to the previous month to the level of 40.7. The employment sub-index, on the other hand, rose by 1.1 points compared to the previous month to the level of 51.8 and maintained its positive outlook in this period as well.
Thus the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which declined by 5.3 points compared to the previous month to 51.4 points, showed that the increase across the sector lost momentum compared to the previous month.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 2.1 points in December 2021 compared to the previous month and fell to the level of 48.1.
In this period, input purchases declined by 7.6 points compared to the previous month to the level of 64.3. Together with this loss of momentum in the increase of input purchases, the business volume for the services sector declined by 0.6 points compared to the previous month to the level of 41.2. This level was the lowest level of the business volume sub-index in the final quarter of the year.
The finished goods stock sub-index, which declined by 2.6 points compared to the previous month to the level of 41.8, and the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which declined by 2.8 points to the level of 47.1, were the other factors effective in the contraction observed in the services sector index in this period. As a result of these developments, labour demand in the sector also maintained its sluggish appearance and the employment sub-index declined by 0.7 points compared to the previous month to the level of 47.4.
Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which declined by 2.1 points in December to the level of 48.1, fell below the reference value of 50 for the first time in the final quarter of the year and indicated that economic activity across the sector contracted compared to the previous month.
COMMENTARY:
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which completed the 3rd quarter of the year with an average of 50.5, closed the final quarter of the year with an average of 51.9. While the positive picture of the real sector for October and November was effective in this average, a visible loss of momentum occurred in the final month of the year. While the effect of the excessive fluctuations observed in the exchange rate during December is being followed in this development, a rapid normalization trend was recorded in the markets following the Turkish Lira Promotion Package announced by President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 20 December. SAMEKS completing 2021 with an average of 51.6 points supports our double-digit growth expectation for the Turkish economy for the whole year. In addition to the end of the excessive volatility in the exchange rate, domestic demand, net foreign demand and investments, which are expected to increase with falling interest rates, give important signals that the Turkish economy will decouple positively in 2022 as well.
This loss of momentum observed in the index was driven by the services sector index falling by 2.1 points compared to the previous month to 48.1 points, while the industry sector index, although it remained above the reference value, lost 5.3 points of momentum compared to the previous month and declined to 51.4 points.
The decline observed in the services sector in this period was driven by the contraction in business volume linked to the decrease in input purchases. In industry, the sharp decrease in new orders compared to the previous month caused production to fall across the sector.
As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which stood at 48.8, fell to its lowest level of the last 4 months and came in below the reference value of 50 points for the first time since the August 2021 period.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 5.3 points in December 2021 compared to the previous month and fell to the level of 51.4.
New orders, which fell by 8.0 points at once compared to the previous month to the level of 49.6, were the determining factor in the loss of momentum recorded across the industry sector in this period.
With the increases in input costs continuing in this period as well, firms were seen to maintain their advance purchases, and despite the contraction observed in new orders, purchases rose by 4.1 points to the level of 78.6. Despite the increase in purchases, the contraction recorded in new orders led to an increase in the finished goods stock, and this sub-index, which rose by 8.5 points at once compared to the previous month, stood at the level of 50.6 points. The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which declined by 5.6 points in this period to the level of 49.9, also indicates that firms experienced disruptions in their supply processes.
As a result of these developments, the production sub-index for the industry sector declined by 8.7 points compared to the previous month to the level of 40.7. The employment sub-index, on the other hand, rose by 1.1 points compared to the previous month to the level of 51.8 and maintained its positive outlook in this period as well.
Thus the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which declined by 5.3 points compared to the previous month to 51.4 points, showed that the increase across the sector lost momentum compared to the previous month.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 2.1 points in December 2021 compared to the previous month and fell to the level of 48.1.
In this period, input purchases declined by 7.6 points compared to the previous month to the level of 64.3. Together with this loss of momentum in the increase of input purchases, the business volume for the services sector declined by 0.6 points compared to the previous month to the level of 41.2. This level was the lowest level of the business volume sub-index in the final quarter of the year.
The finished goods stock sub-index, which declined by 2.6 points compared to the previous month to the level of 41.8, and the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which declined by 2.8 points to the level of 47.1, were the other factors effective in the contraction observed in the services sector index in this period. As a result of these developments, labour demand in the sector also maintained its sluggish appearance and the employment sub-index declined by 0.7 points compared to the previous month to the level of 47.4.
Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which declined by 2.1 points in December to the level of 48.1, fell below the reference value of 50 for the first time in the final quarter of the year and indicated that economic activity across the sector contracted compared to the previous month.
COMMENTARY:
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which completed the 3rd quarter of the year with an average of 50.5, closed the final quarter of the year with an average of 51.9. While the positive picture of the real sector for October and November was effective in this average, a visible loss of momentum occurred in the final month of the year. While the effect of the excessive fluctuations observed in the exchange rate during December is being followed in this development, a rapid normalization trend was recorded in the markets following the Turkish Lira Promotion Package announced by President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 20 December. SAMEKS completing 2021 with an average of 51.6 points supports our double-digit growth expectation for the Turkish economy for the whole year. In addition to the end of the excessive volatility in the exchange rate, domestic demand, net foreign demand and investments, which are expected to increase with falling interest rates, give important signals that the Turkish economy will decouple positively in 2022 as well.