Evaluation Meeting with the Minister of Trade of the Republic of Türkiye

10 January 2023

Honourable Minister,

Esteemed members of our MÜSİAD, valued representatives of our business world,

Distinguished ladies and gentlemen,

Esteemed members of the press,

I greet you all with respect and affection.

Welcome to our Evaluation Meeting; you have honoured us with your presence…

Distinguished guests, esteemed MÜSİAD Family,

The geography of Anatolia, where we have lived together for hundreds of years, is at the same time the region in which all the civilizations of the world were born. These lands are the centre of labour, of tolerance, of love and of sharing.

The foundations of our MÜSİAD were likewise laid in 1990 through the faith, the determination and the resolve of 12 young business people who believed in the abundance of these lands and who demonstrated the power of sharing and of labour. This seed sown into the soil sprouted before long. And today, after almost 34 years have passed, the branches of this tree, which have spread both across our country and to many geographies of the world, have brought us, the devotees of MÜSİAD, together as well.

MÜSİAD resolutely continues its march for the cause of civilization on the path it set out upon with the aim of opening the strength of Anatolia to the world and strengthening local development.

Distinguished Guests, esteemed MÜSİAD Family,

Today we are together with our very valued fellow traveller who has supported us throughout our march of civilization and who has lent his shoulder to MÜSİAD since its earliest days, our Third-Term President, our Honourable Minister Prof. Dr. Ömer Bolat.

Our Honourable Minister Mr. Ömer Bolat holds a very special place in the MÜSİAD community. Immediately after the founding of MÜSİAD, in 1993, our esteemed Minister, who worked wholeheartedly for the march of civilization, assumed the office of secretary general here for a period as long as 7 years. During his 15 years of service on the MÜSİAD Board of Directors, he shouldered this burden for 4 years as Vice President and thereafter, between 2004 and 2008, as our Third-Term President. May he be well; he did not withhold his support after his term as President either: since 2008 he has at all times continued to support our march as a member of the MÜSİAD High Advisory Council and as a MÜSİAD member to the core.

In short, the share of our Honourable Minister Prof. Dr. Ömer Bolat in bringing our MÜSİAD to this day is very, very great.

On this occasion, as one of his successors in the march of civilization, we take great pride in hosting our esteemed Minister and Third-Term President Prof. Dr. Ömer Bolat. Welcome once again, Honourable Minister.

Honourable Minister,

Esteemed members of MÜSİAD, valued members of the press,

At the “2023 Economic Assessment and 2024 Expectations - Extended Presidents' Meeting” we held in Ankara a few days ago, while assessing the year 2023 with our Minister of Treasury and Finance Mr. Mehmet Şimşek, we also consulted on the expectations regarding the year 2024. At that highly productive meeting, important findings emerged indicating that the coming period will be an optimistic one.

I would like to recall very briefly the topics of that meeting and then to touch upon a few points that stood out in the member survey we conduct every year, and to seek the views of our Honourable Minister.

Türkiye, which in 2022 achieved the distinction of being the 3rd fastest-growing country of the G20 with %5.6, entered the year 2023 with this same motivation.

Indeed, in January, on an annual basis, increases of %10.3 in exports, %4.5 in industrial production, %33.9 in retail sales and %94.0 in total turnover were recorded; the unemployment rate fell to the level of %9.7.

Nevertheless, our country, which unfortunately faced the greatest disaster in its history as a result of the two major earthquakes centred on Kahramanmaraş on 6 February, experienced a great shock as economic activity was seriously disrupted in our 11 provinces whose share in GDP exceeds %10 and which account for %8.6 of total exports.

Thank goodness, as our state and our nation acted in a spirit of national solidarity and with extraordinary effort during the earthquake process and healed the wounds, it became possible for the reconstruction and rebuilding of our disaster-stricken provinces to begin rapidly.

Despite these earthquakes described as “the disaster of the century”, the Turkish economy, which showed great resilience by growing %4 in the first quarter of the year, sustained this performance in the second quarter as well and, by growing at a rate of %3.9, succeeded in decoupling positively within the global economy.

Finally, growing at a rate of %5.9 in the third quarter of the year, the Turkish economy managed to become the 2nd fastest-growing country of the G20 after India in that period, thereby achieving a significant success by recording growth for 13 consecutive quarters.

At such a time, when our country too, along with the leading economies, is confronting the problem of inflation and is in a process of monetary tightening, the acceleration of the growth rate of the Turkish economy is a development that deserves appreciation.

We have full confidence that our country, which has carried the flag of exports to more than 200 countries and which has made very great strides in many fields from the economy to infrastructure and urbanization, from education to health, will sustain this success in the period ahead as well and, in the 2nd century of the Republic, will overcome the middle-income trap and enter among the 10 largest economies of the world.

Honourable Minister, distinguished guests,

Within the scope of our Economic Survey, which we traditionally present for the assessment of our members in the final month of every year, a total of 24 questions were put to the participants. The first 9 of these questions concern the assessment of the year 2023, while the other 15 questions cover expectations and forecasts regarding the year 2024.

Now I shall try to convey to you a few survey questions that particularly stood out and that I believe should be specifically addressed here, together with the answers that emerged.

  • The first question we directed to our members was in what direction their domestic sales in 2023 had changed compared with the previous year. While % 42.4 of our members who took part in our survey answered “Increased”, the share of those who answered “Decreased” is % 39.7. As will be recalled, the contribution of domestic consumption to the % 5.9 GDP growth for the first 9 months of the year was 10.5 points, whereas the weakening in the 3rd quarter drew attention. In this context we may state that % 42.4 of our members who took part in the survey supported the domestic demand-driven growth of the Turkish economy.

In the survey we conducted the previous year, %49 of our members had forecast that their domestic sales would increase in 2023. It is therefore possible to say that 2023 was a year in which the expectations of our members were not met.

  • Another of our questions was in what direction the exports of our members had changed compared with the previous year. While % 15.9 of our members who took part in the survey answered “Increased”, % 31 stated that their exports had decreased and % 53.1 that they had remained unchanged. The fact that our members whose exports increased are fewer than our members whose exports decreased supports the loss of momentum in our annual exports.

In addition, the fact that the share of our members who forecast export growth for the year 2023 in the survey we conducted the previous year stood at the level of % 41.0 indicates that, on the point of external demand, 2023 fell considerably short of expectations.

  • To our other question, in which we asked our members to assess the course of their imports compared with the previous year, % 14.2 of the survey participants answered “Increased”, % 24.5 “Decreased” and % 61.3 “Unchanged”.
  • To the question asked regarding the likely course of their domestic sales in the year 2024, % 31.6 of our members answered in the direction of an increase, while % 44.6 expressed an expectation of a decrease. In the light of these data we may say that our members, similarly to their capacity utilization forecasts, foresee for the year 2024 a more moderate climate for economic activity compared with the previous year.
  • When we asked in what direction they expected their exports to change in the year 2024, it is seen that % 29.1 of our members who took part in the survey answered “Will increase” and % 24.8 answered “Will decrease”. Thus it is seen that the expectations of our members who took part in the survey regarding growth in external demand for the year 2024 are more optimistic than their forecasts regarding domestic demand.

These were the questions and answers we selected from our 24-question Economic Survey, which we traditionally present for the assessment of our members in the final month of every year. I believe that these few examples I have given are highly suitable for reading and for analysis in terms of laying bare the general economic perspective.

Honourable Minister,

Esteemed MÜSİAD Family,

As business people and members of the trade community, alongside halal earnings we are filled with the enthusiasm and the passion of carrying our country to higher levels economically. Therefore, what falls to us is to work for the development of our country; to produce more, to invest and thereby to provide employment.

Praise be to God, as MÜSİAD we have to date undertaken many fine initiatives in terms of providing employment and increasing investment. In the year 2024 and in the periods to come, these efforts of ours will, God willing, continue and increase.

I greet with respect and reverence all the business people who contribute to our MÜSİAD with their efforts, their labour and the sweat of their brow, and who provide added value to the economy of our country…

May God protect you.

Mahmut Asmalı

President of MÜSİAD