Assessment Meeting with the Minister of Trade of the Republic of Türkiye

10 January 2023

Honourable Minister,

Esteemed members of our MÜSİAD, distinguished representatives of our business world,

Honourable ladies and gentlemen,

Esteemed members of the press,

I greet you all with respect and affection.

Welcome to our Assessment Meeting; your presence honours us…

Esteemed guests, distinguished MÜSİAD Family,

The geography of Anatolia, in which we have lived together for hundreds of years, is at the same time the region where all the civilizations of the world were born. These lands are the centre of labour, of tolerance, of love and of sharing.

The foundations of our MÜSİAD, too, were laid in 1990 with the faith, determination and resolve of 12 young business people who believed in the abundance of these lands and who demonstrated the power of sharing and of labour. This seed cast into the soil sprouted before long. And today, after almost 34 years have passed, the branches of this tree, which have spread both in our country and across many geographies of the world, have brought together us, the devotees of MÜSİAD, as well.

MÜSİAD is resolutely continuing its march for the cause of civilization on the path it set out upon with the aim of opening the strength of Anatolia to the world and strengthening local development.

Distinguished Guests, esteemed MÜSİAD Family,

Today we are together with our very dear fellow traveller who has supported us throughout our march of civilization and has lent his shoulder to MÜSİAD from its earliest days, our Third-Term President, our Honourable Minister Prof. Dr. Ömer Bolat.

Our Honourable Minister Mr. Ömer Bolat holds a very special place in the MÜSİAD community. Immediately after the establishment of MÜSİAD, in 1993, our esteemed Minister, who worked with all his heart for the march of civilization, undertook the office of secretary general here for as long as 7 years. Within his 15 years of service on the MÜSİAD Board of Directors, he served 4 years as Vice President and thereafter, between 2004 and 2008, shouldered this burden as our Third-Term President. May God bless him, he did not withhold his support after his term as President either: at present, since 2008, he has always continued his support for our march in his role as a member of the MÜSİAD High Advisory Council and as a MÜSİAD member to the core.

In short, the share of our Honourable Minister Prof. Dr. Ömer Bolat in bringing our MÜSİAD to where it is today is very, very great.

On this occasion, as one of his successors in the march of civilization, we take great pride in hosting our esteemed Minister and our Third-Term President Prof. Dr. Ömer Bolat. Once again, welcome, Honourable Minister.

Honourable Minister,

Esteemed members of MÜSİAD, distinguished members of the press,

At the “2023 Economic Assessment and 2024 Expectations - Expanded Presidents Meeting” that we held in Ankara a few days ago, while assessing the year 2023 with our Minister of Treasury and Finance Mr. Mehmet Şimşek, we also consulted on the expectations for 2024. At this highly productive meeting, important observations emerged to the effect that the coming period will be optimistic.

I would like to recall the topic headings of that meeting very briefly, and then to touch on a few points that stood out in the member survey we conduct every year, and to seek the views of our Honourable Minister.

Türkiye, which in 2022 achieved the distinction of being the 3rd fastest-growing country in the G20 with %5.6, entered 2023 with that motivation.

Indeed, in January, increases of %10.3 in exports, %4.5 in industrial production, %33.9 in retail sales and %94.0 in total turnover were recorded on an annual basis; and the unemployment rate had fallen to the level of %9.7.

Along with this, unfortunately, our country, which faced the greatest disaster in its history as a result of the two great earthquakes centred on Kahramanmaraş on 6 February, experienced a great shock as economic activity was seriously interrupted in 11 of our provinces, whose share in GDP exceeds %10 and which carry out %8.6 of total exports.

Thank God; during the earthquake period, our state and our nation acted in a spirit of national solidarity and with extraordinary effort and bound up the wounds, thus making it possible for the reconstruction and rebuilding of our stricken provinces to begin swiftly.

Despite these earthquakes, described as the “disaster of the century”, the Turkish economy, which showed great resilience by growing %4 in the first quarter of the year, sustained this performance in the second quarter as well and succeeded in differentiating itself positively within the global economy by growing %3.9.

Finally, the Turkish economy, which grew %5.9 in the third quarter of the year, succeeded in becoming the 2nd fastest-growing country in the G20 after India in this period, and thus achieved an important success by recording growth for 13 consecutive quarters.

At a time when our country, together with the leading economies, is confronting the problem of inflation and is in a process of monetary tightening, the acceleration of the Turkish economy's growth rate is a development that deserves appreciation.

We have full confidence that our country, which has carried the flag of exports to more than 200 countries and has made very great strides in many fields from the economy to infrastructure and urbanization, from education to health, will sustain this success in the coming period as well and, overcoming the middle-income trap in the 2nd century of the Republic, will enter the ranks of the world's 10 largest economies.

Honourable Minister, esteemed guests,

Within the scope of our Economy Survey, which we traditionally present for our members' assessment in the last month of every year, a total of 24 questions were put to the participants. The first 9 of these questions relate to the assessment of the year 2023, while the other 15 questions cover the expectations and forecasts regarding the year 2024.

Now I will try to convey to you a few survey questions that particularly stood out and that I think should be specially mentioned here, and the answers that emerged.

  • The first question we put to our members was in what direction their domestic sales had changed in 2023 compared with the previous year. While % 42.4 of our members who took part in our survey answered “Increased”, the proportion of those who answered “Decreased” is % 39.7. As will be recalled, in the % 5.9 GDP growth for the first 9 months of the year the contribution of domestic consumption was 10.5 points, whereas the weakening in the 3rd quarter drew attention. In this context we can say that % 42.4 of our members who took part in the survey supported the domestic demand-driven growth of the Turkish economy.

In the survey we conducted the previous year, %49 of our members had forecast that their domestic sales would increase in 2023. Therefore, it is possible to say that 2023 was a year in which our members' expectations were not met.

  • Another of our questions was in what direction our members' exports had changed compared with the previous year. While % 15.9 of our members who took part in the survey answered “Increased”, % 31 stated that their exports had decreased and % 53.1 that they had not changed. The fact that our members whose exports recorded an increase are fewer than our members whose exports recorded a decrease supports the loss of momentum in our annual exports.

In addition to this, the fact that the proportion of our members who forecast an increase in exports for 2023 in the survey we conducted the previous year was at the level of % 41.0 indicates that, in terms of foreign demand, 2023 fell considerably short of expectations.

  • To our other question, in which we asked our members to assess the course of their imports compared with the previous year, % 14.2 of the survey participants answered “Increased”, % 24.5 “Decreased” and % 61.3 “Did not change”.
  • To the question asked about the likely course of their domestic sales in 2024, % 31.6 of our members answered in the direction of an increase, while % 44.6 expressed the expectation of a decrease. In the light of these data we can say that our members, similarly to their capacity utilization forecasts, foresee a more moderate climate for economic activity in 2024 compared with the previous year.
  • When we asked in what direction they expect their exports to change in 2024, it is seen that % 29.1 of our members who took part in the survey answered “Will increase” and % 24.8 “Will decrease”. Thus it is seen that the foreign demand growth expectations of our members who took part in the survey regarding 2024 are more optimistic than their domestic demand forecasts.

These were the questions and answers we selected from our 24-question Economy Survey, which we traditionally present for our members' assessment in the last month of every year. I think that these few examples I have given are highly suitable for reading and analysis in terms of revealing the general economic perspective.

Honourable Minister,

Esteemed MÜSİAD Family,

As business people and members of the trade, alongside lawful earnings we are filled with the enthusiasm and the passion of carrying our country higher economically. That is why what falls to us is to work for the development of our country; to produce more, to invest and, in this way, to provide employment.

Praise be to God, as MÜSİAD we have to date carried out many fine works in terms of providing employment and increasing investment. In 2024 and in the periods that follow, these efforts of ours will, God willing, continue and increase.

I greet with respect and reverence all business people who contribute to our MÜSİAD with their efforts, their labour and the sweat of their brow; who provide added value to our country's economy…

May God protect you.

Mahmut Asmalı

President of MÜSİAD