MÜSİAD ANNOUNCED THE SAMEKS DATA FOR APRIL 2020

In April 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 5.1 points compared to the previous month, falling to a value of 34.3.

This decline observed in the index in April was driven by the industry sector index falling by 12.8 points compared to the previous month to the level of 28.3, while the services sector index also declined by 1.8 points to the level of 37.2.

The sharp fall that occurred in the industry sector was driven by the serious contractions observed in new orders and input purchases. In the services sector, the drop of input purchases by 9.0 points at once caused the contraction in business volume for the sector to continue. With these developments, the lowest level in the history of the index was observed in both sectors. Thus the SAMEKS Composite Index, which has been calculated since the January 2013 period, fell to the lowest level in its history due to the serious contractionary effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on total supply and demand.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index declined by 12.8 points at once in April 2020 compared to the previous month, falling to the level of 28.3. The decline of new orders by 14.9 points compared to the previous month to the level of 18.9 played a decisive role in the sharp fall in the industry sector during this period. Accordingly, input purchases for the sector lost 22.7 points of momentum compared to the previous month and fell to the level of 28.8. The decrease in the finished goods stock relating to the sector continued in April as well, and the sub-index, which declined by 11.8 points compared to the previous month, fell to the level of 34.8. The loss of momentum in the labour demand of firms operating in the industry sector also continued, and the employment sub-index declined by 10.7 points at once compared to the previous month, standing at the level of 38.9. In line with these developments, the production sub-index declined by 20.8 points compared to the previous month, falling to the level of 18.1. Thus the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index fell to 28.3 points, the worst level in the history of the index.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index declined by 1.8 points in April 2020 compared to the previous month, falling to the level of 37.2. The input purchases sub-index, which in this period fell by 9.0 points at once compared to the previous month to the level of 31.5, played a decisive role in the sharp decline of the services sector index. The finished goods stock index, which continued its course below the reference value of 50 despite recording an increase of 4.9 points compared to the previous month, and the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which indicated that purchases had been seriously disrupted, were the other developments presenting a negative outlook for the services sector. Although a relative increase was recorded compared to the previous month, the negative outlook also continued in the employment sub-index, which stood at the level of 49.0. In the light of these developments, the business volume sub-index for the services sector stood at the level of 29.8 points and indicated that the contraction continued in this period as well. Thus the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index fell to 37.2 points, the lowest level in the history of the index, in the April 2020 period.

COMMENTARY:

While the shock created by the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy was observed to have continued at an accelerating pace throughout April, the negative effect of this process on the Turkish economy also peaked in this period. While all values relating to SAMEKS were observed to have materialized at their historically lowest levels in April, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate, which fell to the level of %61.6, and the real sector confidence index, which fell by %44.1 points at once, also presented a picture parallel to SAMEKS. With the delayed impact on the markets of the support and incentives provided by the economic administration, which reached TRY 200 billion as of the end of April, the real sector is expected to gradually enter a recovery process as of the coming period. In line with these developments, we can estimate that SAMEKS, which has fallen to the worst level in the history of the index, will enter a recovery trend as of May, while at the same time the course below the reference value of 50 will continue throughout the first half of the year.