In April 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 2.1 points compared to the previous month to reach 53.2.

This increase observed in the index was driven by the services sector index rising by 2.4 points compared to the previous month to 53.0, while the industry sector index also rose by 1.7 points compared to the previous month to 52.5 and supported the positive outlook in the Composite Index.

While the acceleration observed in both sector indices in this period was driven by the continuing increases in input purchases, it was observed that, despite these increases, business volume in the services sector and production in the industry sector followed a stagnant course.

As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which rose to 53.2 in April, carried its course above the reference value of 50 into its 5th consecutive month and pointed to the vitality in the real sector.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 1.7 points in April 2021 compared to the previous month to reach 52.5.

This increase observed in the index was driven by input purchases rising by 8.6 points compared to the previous month to reach 62.0.

In parallel with the acceleration in input purchases, new orders also recorded an increase of 2.4 points compared to the previous month; nevertheless, this sub-index stood just below the reference value at 49.9 points.

In line with the flat picture in new orders, the production sub-index across the industry sector recorded a decline of 3.0 points compared to the previous month and stood at 49.7.

In this period, the finished goods stock sub-index for the industry sector maintained its course below the reference value at 47.1 points, while the suppliers' delivery time sub-index continued its positive course at 53.8 points.

The employment sub-index, which recorded an increase of 7.3 points compared to the previous month and rose to 59.4, shows that the pace of recovery in labour demand in the industry sector has increased.

Thus, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which recorded an increase of 1.7 points compared to the previous month and stood above the reference value at 52.5 points, points to the continuation of the positive outlook across the sector.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 2.4 points in April 2021 compared to the previous month to reach 53.0.

This acceleration observed in the services sector was driven by input purchases recording an increase of 4.2 points and rising to 64.2.

Despite the continuation of the strong course in purchases, business volume across the sector maintained its weak picture in April as well, and this sub-index, which fell by 2.7 points compared to the previous month, stood at 45.2.

While the finished goods stock sub-index, which recorded an increase of 1.2 points compared to the previous month, rose to 51.7 points, suppliers' delivery time also rose to 56.4 points with an increase of 3.0 points and maintained its positive outlook.

The employment sub-index for the sector, on the other hand, although it recorded a decline of 1.2 points, stood at 53.4 and indicated that, even though it lost momentum compared to the previous month, labour demand continues to record an increase.

As a result of these developments, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which rose by 2.4 points compared to the previous month to 53.0, maintained in the second quarter of 2021 the positive outlook that began in the November period of 2020.

COMMENTARY:
SAMEKS, which pointed to the vitality in economic activity by remaining above the reference value of 50 throughout the first quarter, continued its increase in April as well and went on supporting the positive outlook for the real sector. The increases observed in the Real Sector Confidence Index and the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization data for this period also confirm the upward momentum of SAMEKS. On the other hand, the stagnation observed in SAMEKS' production sub-index for the industry sector and business volume sub-index for the services sector indicates that the high course in the exchange rate and pandemic conditions continue to weigh on the real sector. While the continuation of the increases in input purchases shows that positive expectations regarding production volume, employment and new orders for the coming period persist, the "full-time curfew" implementation between 29 April and 17 May is expected to affect economic activity in May negatively.