In July 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 2.3 points compared with the previous month to a value of 53.1.

This acceleration was driven by the services sector index recording an increase of 6.1 points at once compared with the previous month. The industry sector index, on the other hand, decreased by 3.3 points compared with the previous month and fell below its reference value.

In this period, it is observed that purchases across the services sector increased quite rapidly. In the industry sector, a slowdown occurred in input purchases and production due to the decline in new orders.

As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which rose by 2.3 points compared with the previous month to 53.1, maintained its course above the reference value and presented a positive outlook for the course of economic activity in the first period of the third quarter.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index fell by 3.3 points in July 2021 compared with the previous month, to 46.7.

The new orders sub-index, which fell by 4.9 points compared with the previous month to 40.0, was decisive in the contraction observed across the industry sector in July. This level of 40.0 points marks the lowest value of the new orders sub-index in the last 15 months (since April 2020).

Input purchases, which fell by 6.2 points compared with the previous month to 56.9 due to the decline in new orders, was another sub-index pointing to a loss of momentum in this period.

As a result of these developments, the industry sector production sub-index fell by 3.4 points compared with the previous month to 39.9, indicating that a contraction was recorded across the sector in July.

In the same period, the finished goods stock sub-index fell by 1.9 points to 45.4, while the suppliers' delivery time sub-index rose by 0.3 points to 58.2, maintaining its positive outlook.

The employment sub-index, which rose by 2.7 points compared with the previous month to 53.0, shows that labour demand in the industry sector is continuing its upward trend.

Thus, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which fell by 3.3 points compared with the previous month and dropped below the reference value again after the May period, presented a negative outlook for the sector in July.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose by 6.1 points in July 2021 compared with the previous month, to 56.1.

The purchases sub-index, which rose by 9.7 points at once compared with the previous month to 73.0, was decisive in the expansion observed across the services sector. This level of 73.0 points stands out as the highest since the series began to be calculated in 2013.

Business volume, which gained momentum together with the record level in purchases, remained at 47.9 points despite recording an increase of 3.0 compared with the previous month, indicating that activity across the sector has not yet fully recovered.

In July, the stocks sub-index for the services sector rose by 9.2 points to 49.1, while the suppliers' delivery time sub-index rose by 7.9 points at once and once again came in above its reference value.

The employment sub-index, for its part, recorded an increase of 5.3 points compared with the previous month to 56.3, indicating that employment growth in the services sector continued in this period.

Thus, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which came in at 56.1 with an increase of 6.1 points compared with the previous month, maintained its positive outlook in this period as well.

COMMENTARY:

It is seen that the lifting of the Covid-19 restrictions as of July caused a significant revival in the services sector. Industry sector production, on the other hand, is observed to have been adversely affected by the 5-day official holiday arising from 15 July and Eid al-Adha. While the services sector is expected to present an even more positive picture in August, led by the acceleration of the tourism and transport sectors, the recovery in the industry sector, which continues to be adversely affected by the rise in input costs, is estimated to be more sluggish compared with the services sector.