In November 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 3.0 points compared with the previous month, falling to a value of 52.3.

The decline of the services sector index by 4.6 points compared with the previous month to 50.5 points was effective in this loss of momentum observed in the index, while the industry sector index recorded an increase of 1.6 points compared with the previous month and maintained its positive outlook at a level of 57.0 points.

In this period, the increases observed in input purchases and new orders were effective in the rise observed in the industry sector. In the services sector, the rapid decline in business volume played the determining role in the index losing momentum compared with the previous month.

As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which came in at a level of 52.3, maintained its course above the reference value despite losing momentum compared with the previous month, and indicated that the vitality in economic activity continues.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 1.6 points in November 2021 compared with the previous month, reaching a level of 57.0.

New orders, which rose by 1.6 points compared with the previous month to a level of 58.0, were the determinant of the expansion recorded across the industry sector in this period.

The continuation of the positive outlook in new orders also increased input purchases, and this sub-index rose by 9.6 points compared with the previous month to a level of 74.0.

As a result of these developments, the industry sector production sub-index, despite decreasing by 5.7 points compared with the previous month, indicated at a level of 50.1 points that the increase in production continues.

While the finished goods stock sub-index, which recorded an increase of 2.6 points compared with the previous month, rose to a level of 52.4, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which came in at a level of 56.5 despite decreasing by 5.9 points, maintained its positive outlook in November as well.

In November the employment sub-index fell by 2.4 points to a level of 50.6; nevertheless, despite losing pace compared with the previous month, it indicated that labour demand across the sector continues.

Thus the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which recorded an increase of 1.6 points compared with the previous month and rose to 57.0 points, showed that the recovery across the sector is gaining momentum.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index fell by 4.6 points in November 2021 compared with the previous month, declining to a level of 50.5.

In this period input purchases continued to increase, by 3.9 points, and at a level of 72.1 points limited the loss of momentum across the index.

Business volume for the sector, on the other hand, contracted compared with the previous month, and this sub-index fell by 7.7 points at once to a level of 42.2.

The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which had recorded a serious recovery in the previous month, fell by 8.3 points to the reference value of 50.0 and indicated that stagnation is being experienced in firms' trade in goods and services. The finished goods stock sub-index also fell by 11.9 points to a level of 44.5 and presented a negative outlook in November.

As a result of these developments, labour demand across the services sector decreased, and the employment sub-index, which fell by 9.2 points at once compared with the previous month, came in at a level of 49.3.

Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which fell by 4.6 points in November to a level of 50.5, maintained its positive outlook; nevertheless, by coming in just above the reference value of 50, it indicated that a significant loss of momentum was experienced compared with the previous month.

COMMENTARY:

The SAMEKS data for November indicate that the real sector across the Turkish economy continues to hold on in positive territory. In particular, the industry sector index, which has continued to rise since August and reached its highest value of the last 16 months as of November, presents a positive outlook for the final quarter of the year. The increase recorded in this period in overall manufacturing industry capacity utilization announced by the CBRT also supports the developments in the industry index in SAMEKS. At the same time, the loss of momentum experienced in supply processes and employment in the services sector presents a mixed picture regarding economic activity in this period. The fact that production lost momentum compared with the previous month despite the rapid increase in the purchasing sub-index in the industry sector shows that, together with the upward trend in the exchange rate, manufacturers have turned to advance purchases and have preferred to reduce probable input costs for the coming period.

The increase recorded in finished goods stock across the sector also supports this commentary.