In December 2019, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 1.2 points compared with the previous month to 52.3.  

While the increase observed in the index in December was driven by the industry sector index rising by 7.9 points compared with the previous month to 54.3, the services sector index also continued its increase, standing at 51.5. 
While the acceleration in new orders was decisive in the increase observed in the industry sector, the positive outlook in input purchases for the services sector also continued in this period. Thus the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which maintained its course above the reference value of 50, sustained in December the positive outlook it had displayed in October and November, and continued to give positive signals regarding the Türkiye economy in the final quarter of the year. 
 
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index 
 
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index rose by 7.9 points in December 2019 compared with the previous month to 54.3. The increase of 8.3 points in new orders compared with the previous month played a decisive role in the recovery of the industry sector in this period. In line with the movement observed in new orders, input purchases rose by 16.8 points compared with the previous month to 62.6. In connection with these developments, the production sub-index rose by 9.8 points compared with the previous month to 52.6 and moved above the reference value of 50. In December, when the finished goods stock for the sector continued to decline, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index stood at 54.1 and maintained its positive outlook. In this period the labour demand of firms operating in the industry sector continued to increase and the employment sub-index rose by 1.9 points compared with the previous month to 52.3. As a result of these developments, the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, which rose to 54.3, exceeded the reference value of 50 for the first time since the July 2018 period and signalled that the recovery in economic activity was accelerating. 
 
Services Sector SAMEKS Index 
 
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index fell by 1.4 points in December 2019 compared with the previous month to 51.5. In this period the input purchases sub-index, which recorded an increase of 0.5 points compared with the previous month to stand at 55.6, played a decisive role in the services sector index remaining above the reference value of 50. Despite the continuation of the positive course in input purchases, the business volume sub-index fell by 3.4 points at once compared with the previous month to 49.9 and presented a negative outlook. In this period the fact that business volume presented a stagnant picture despite the increase in input purchases led to a rise in the finished goods stock, and the sub-index in question rose to 51.3 points. The employment sub-index, which fell by 0.6 points compared with the previous month to 50.4, nevertheless remained above the reference value and gave a signal of an increase in employment in the sector. Thus the SAMEKS Services Sector Index continued in this period the increase that began in November and, standing above the reference value of 50, pointed to the vitality in the sector. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
 
The SAMEKS Composite Index, which rose to 52.3 points and pointed to a growing and continuing vitality in economic activity, supports the positive outlook for the real sector. Thus the index value, indicating the highest level of the last 1.5 years, confirms with its final-quarter average of 51.2 points the positive growth expectations for the Türkiye economy in this period. While it is notable that the industry sector index rose above the reference value of 50 in this period (for the first time since the currency attacks experienced in the August 2018 period), the services sector index also indicated that the recovery process in the economy was continuing, despite a slowdown in the pace of increase compared with the previous month. While the official data announced for the real sector in December (Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization and the Real Sector Confidence Index) also confirm the positive outlook reflected by SAMEKS, it is estimated that the upward course of the Türkiye economy will continue in the first quarter of 2020.