MÜSİAD President Mahmut Asmalı, who stated that they foresee growth in the Turkish economy in 2022 exceeding market forecasts and coming in at around 5 percent, said, “The results of the ‘Economy Survey’ prepared with the participation of MÜSİAD members in the last month of every year also support Türkiye's growth drive.”

Asmalı pointed out that following the ‘Turkish Lira Promotion Package’ announced by our esteemed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 20 December, the business world entered 2022 with a far more positive perception. According to the results of the Economy Survey, 2022 holds significant opportunities in terms of investment, exports and employment.

MÜSİAD President Mahmut Asmalı, who said that they had left 100 days behind following MÜSİAD's 26th Ordinary General Assembly held on 11 September 2021, stated, “During this period we successfully represented our country at home and abroad. We signed global cooperation agreements with different countries. We developed innovative business models that will carry our trade and export process into the future. We reached 88 branches domestically and 81 contact points in 74 countries abroad. With our 12,000 members and 60,000 companies operating in various sectors, we provide employment for 1.8 million people.”

THE 2022 PROJECTION IS BUILT ON 7 STRATEGIES

Asmalı, who pointed out that they had structured their 2022 projections under seven strategic headings in order to add value in every respect to our country's domestic and national production power, summarized these items as follows: “We will strengthen MÜSİAD offices in all G20 countries and increase trade diplomacy activities. We have projects such as establishing the Gulf Businessmen Liaison Office, organizing at least one MÜSİAD Expo Fair abroad, establishing the MÜSİAD International Arbitration Centre, supporting micro exports, strengthening in this direction the infrastructure processes of each of our members such as logistics, human resources and payment systems, bringing ambassadors and commercial attachés together with business people in Anatolia through economic diplomacy activities, and establishing the MÜSİAD Trade Office (MTO).”

“IN 2022 AND BEYOND, THE FOREIGN CURRENCY INFLOW PROBLEM IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY WILL LARGELY BE OVERCOME AND A STRUCTURE RUNNING A PERMANENT CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS WILL COME TO THE FORE”

Mahmut Asmalı, who expressed that 2021 was a year in which Türkiye stood apart and came to the fore in every respect in the global arena, said, “Employment potential comes first among the parameters of change. As of the third quarter of 2021, we observe that the service, agriculture, industry and construction sectors have raised their employment levels above pre-pandemic levels. Türkiye exceeded its 2021 export target of USD 211 billion and closed 2021 with a record USD 225.4 billion in exports. We believe that the USD 242 billion in exports targeted for 2023 under the OVP can comfortably be reached in 2022. We are confident that in 2022 and beyond the foreign currency inflow problem in the Turkish economy will largely be overcome and that we will attain a structure running a permanent current account surplus. With its production, service and distribution potential, Türkiye is advancing towards becoming a global hub in logistics. As MÜSİAD, we believe that the Turkish economy will exceed the export target of USD 250 billion in 2022, particularly with the increase in service exports.

“NEGATIVE EXPECTATIONS TURNED POSITIVE RAPIDLY AFTER THE TURKISH LIRA PROMOTION PACKAGE”

Asmalı, touching on the fact that inflation, the principal problem of all countries at the global level, will be among the priority agenda items in 2022, said, “Following the Turkish Lira Promotion Package announced by our President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 20 December 2021, the Turkish Lira, which rapidly appreciated against foreign currencies, considerably reduced the cost inflation pressure on prices in the domestic market. We believe this process is a milestone for the Turkish economy. We observe that the negative expectations for the Turkish economy regarding 2022 turned positive rapidly after the Turkish Lira Promotion Package. Our producers, our industrialists, our investors and our entrepreneurs entered 2022 far more hopeful.

“WITH THIS PACKAGE OF MEASURES, MANY FACTORS KEEPING THE EXCHANGE RATE UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE WILL BE ELIMINATED AND THE PERCEPTION MANIPULATION OVER THE TURKISH LIRA WILL ALSO COME TO AN END”

MÜSİAD President Mahmut Asmalı, who stated that as MÜSİAD they support the process in which the Minister of Treasury and Finance Mr. Nureddin Nebati is moving forward with a growth model focused on investment, production and employment by breaking free from the grip of high interest rates under the leadership of our esteemed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said, “A new economic model has been built that is based on high exports, that reduces the current account deficit and that reflects the welfare system across the whole of society. In this process, as MÜSİAD, we will fulfil every responsibility that falls to us. The fact that returns on Turkish Lira deposits will be protected against exchange rate increases will considerably prevent dollarization. In addition to this regulation, increasing the state contribution in the Private Pension System (BES), the withholding tax exemption for Government Domestic Debt Securities (DİBS) and the investment instruments to be developed for gold investments referred to as under-the-mattress savings will offer our citizens alternative investment areas against foreign currency. Together with this package of measures, many factors keeping the exchange rate under upward pressure will be eliminated and the perception manipulation over the Turkish Lira will also come to an end,” he said.

“WE ARE WORKING FOR A PRODUCING AND STRONG TÜRKİYE”

 Asmalı, who said, “2022 will be a period in which the strong growth process continues for the Turkish economy,” continued as follows: “In 2022, in which we believe that the changes in domestic demand, net external demand and investments will each provide positive support to growth, we believe that growth in the Turkish economy will exceed market forecasts and come in at around 5 percent. We foresee that, as the effects of these measures are fully reflected in the market, the increases in the general level of prices will approach normal levels as of the second half of 2022. We will continue our work for a producing and strong Türkiye.”

THE ECONOMY SURVEY ALSO SUPPORTS POSITIVE GROWTH

After his assessments of 2021 and his projection for 2022, Mahmut Asmalı stated that the results of the ‘Economy Survey’ traditionally prepared with the participation of MÜSİAD members in the last month of every year also support Türkiye's growth drive. Asmalı, who said that a different method was followed in 2021 and that the 10-question survey format put to members had been increased to 21 questions, commented, “The first 9 of these questions cover the assessment of the year 2021 we have left behind, while the remaining 12 questions cover expectations and forecasts for 2022. One of the most striking reflections of the survey is that MÜSİAD members entered 2022 with a far more positive perception following the ‘Turkish Lira Promotion Package’ announced by our esteemed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 20 December.”

DOMESTIC SALES ROSE IN 2021

Within the scope of the Economy Survey conducted with the participation of 895 businessmen who are MÜSİAD members, the first question asked was ‘in which direction their domestic sales had changed in 2021 compared with the previous year’. While %46 of the members who took part in the survey answered “increased”, the share of those answering “decreased” was %37. In the %11.7 GDP growth for the first 9 months of 2021, the contribution of domestic consumption was 8.2 points. In this context, it was notable that %46 of the members participating in the survey supported the domestic-demand-driven growth of the Turkish economy.

CAPACITY UTILIZATION RECORDED AN INCREASE

The second question put to MÜSİAD members was in which direction their capacity utilization had changed compared with 2020. %41 of the members stated that their capacity utilization had increased, %35 that it had decreased and %24 that it had not changed. These data confirmed the rise of manufacturing industry capacity utilization in Türkiye from the level of %75.4 at the beginning of 2021 to %78.7 by the end of the year.

EXPORT PERFORMANCE STRENGTHENED

When members were asked in which direction their export processes had changed compared with the previous year, %36 answered “increased”, while %19 stated that their exports had decreased and %45 that they had not changed. As for the assessment of the import trend compared with the previous year, %25 of the survey participants answered “increased”, %22 “decreased” and %53 “did not change”. 

EQUITY INVESTMENTS BEGAN TO RISE

%39 of the members stated that their investments had increased compared with the previous year, while %35 said they had decreased. It was notable that high interest rates, which stand out as the biggest obstacle to new investments, limit growth in the Turkish economy. %59 of the members emphasized that they increased their investments through equity, %32 through credit, %9 through partnership and %0.5 through public offering.

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH CONTINUED

Total employment, which stood at the level of 27.7 million in January 2021, rose to 29.6 million as of the October 2021 period. Thus an additional 1.9 million jobs were created in 10 months. Of the MÜSİAD members assessing their employment processes compared with the previous year, 35 percent stated that their employment had increased and 28 percent that it had decreased.

THE NEW ECONOMY MODEL INSTILLED CONFIDENCE

When members were asked in the Economy Survey how the low interest rate/competitive dollar exchange rate within the scope of the ‘New Economy Model’ would be reflected in their businesses in 2022, the share of those answering “it will have a positive effect” was seen to be %52, while the share of those saying “it will have a negative effect” remained at %17.

DOMESTIC SALES WILL INCREASE

When the likely course of domestic sales in 2022 was analysed, %46 of the members taking part in the Economy Survey stated that domestic sales would increase in 2022, while the expectation of a decrease came in at the level of %28. It was thus observed that the Turkish Lira Promotion Package also had a highly positive effect on expectations regarding domestic sales.

EXPORT POTENTIAL WILL STRENGTHEN

While the number of MÜSİAD members stating that their export potential would increase in 2022 was 58 percent, only 9 percent of the members answered that their export processes could decrease and %33 that they would not change.

2022 WILL BE BRIGHTER THAN 2021

One of the most positive effects of the Turkish Lira Promotion Package on real sector expectations is the answers given to the question ‘How do you expect 2022 to go for your company compared with 2021?’... It was observed that %58 of the members taking part in the survey answered “better”, %20 similar to 2021 and %22 “worse”.