In February 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 0.5 points compared to the previous month, falling to 51.3.
The decline observed in the index in February was driven by the industry sector index falling by 5.8 points compared to the previous month to 51.2, while the services sector index rose by 1.0 point to 51.4 and limited the loss of momentum observed in the Composite Index.
While the acceleration of input purchases was decisive in the increase observed in the services sector, the decline in the growth rate of new orders draws attention in the loss of momentum in the industry sector. Despite having lost pace compared to the previous month, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which continues its course above the reference value of 50, maintained its positive outlook for the real sector in the February 2020 period as well.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index declined by 5.8 points in February 2020 compared to the previous month, falling to 51.2. The decline of new orders by 7.1 points at once compared to the previous month, down to 50.0, played a decisive role in the loss of momentum in the industry sector in this period. In connection with the slowdown observed in new orders, input purchases declined by 5.6 points compared to the previous month to 57.8. In line with these developments, the production sub-index declined by 8.3 points compared to the previous month to 50.8. While the decrease in the finished goods stock of the sector continued in February as well, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index stood at 50.4 and maintained its positive outlook. In this period, the labour demand of the companies operating in the industry sector decreased rapidly and the employment sub-index declined by 6.7 points compared to the previous month to 49.0. As a result of these developments, the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, which fell to 51.2, maintained its course above the reference value of 50 despite the said loss of momentum and sustained the upward trend that began in December of last year.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose by 1.0 point in February 2020 compared to the previous month, climbing to 51.4. In this period, the input purchases sub-index, which rose by 6.0 points compared to the previous month to 59.9, played a decisive role in the acceleration of the services sector index. Despite the increase in input purchases, the decline of business volume by 0.1 point to 49.4 points caused an increase in the finished goods stock in this period. The finished goods stock sub-index, which had fallen below the reference value of 50 in the previous period, rose by 5.6 points in February to 51.3. The employment sub-index, which declined by 0.3 point compared to the previous month to 47.6, maintained its signal of employment loss for the sector. Thus, the SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which recorded an increase of 1.0 point compared to the previous month, sustained in February 2020 the recovery trend that began in the November 2019 period.
COMMENTARY:
The SAMEKS Composite Index, which maintained its course above the reference value of 50 in the February 2020 period as well, indicates that the positive course for the real sector has been carried into the 5th consecutive month. While both the services and the industry sectors were observed to maintain their positive general outlook in this period, the economic growth signals for the first quarter of the year remain favourable. On the other hand, the outlook of the employment sub-index below the reference value of 50 in both sectors indicates that the recovery in economic activity has not yet been fully reflected in the labour markets. The increases observed in the Real Sector Confidence Index and in the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization Rate announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye for February also confirm the positive outlook in SAMEKS. In parallel with the expectations that the recovery trend in economic activity will continue and that the current account balance will follow a moderate course in the coming period, we may estimate that the positive outlook for the real sector will continue in the March 2020 period as well.
The decline observed in the index in February was driven by the industry sector index falling by 5.8 points compared to the previous month to 51.2, while the services sector index rose by 1.0 point to 51.4 and limited the loss of momentum observed in the Composite Index.
While the acceleration of input purchases was decisive in the increase observed in the services sector, the decline in the growth rate of new orders draws attention in the loss of momentum in the industry sector. Despite having lost pace compared to the previous month, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which continues its course above the reference value of 50, maintained its positive outlook for the real sector in the February 2020 period as well.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index declined by 5.8 points in February 2020 compared to the previous month, falling to 51.2. The decline of new orders by 7.1 points at once compared to the previous month, down to 50.0, played a decisive role in the loss of momentum in the industry sector in this period. In connection with the slowdown observed in new orders, input purchases declined by 5.6 points compared to the previous month to 57.8. In line with these developments, the production sub-index declined by 8.3 points compared to the previous month to 50.8. While the decrease in the finished goods stock of the sector continued in February as well, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index stood at 50.4 and maintained its positive outlook. In this period, the labour demand of the companies operating in the industry sector decreased rapidly and the employment sub-index declined by 6.7 points compared to the previous month to 49.0. As a result of these developments, the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, which fell to 51.2, maintained its course above the reference value of 50 despite the said loss of momentum and sustained the upward trend that began in December of last year.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose by 1.0 point in February 2020 compared to the previous month, climbing to 51.4. In this period, the input purchases sub-index, which rose by 6.0 points compared to the previous month to 59.9, played a decisive role in the acceleration of the services sector index. Despite the increase in input purchases, the decline of business volume by 0.1 point to 49.4 points caused an increase in the finished goods stock in this period. The finished goods stock sub-index, which had fallen below the reference value of 50 in the previous period, rose by 5.6 points in February to 51.3. The employment sub-index, which declined by 0.3 point compared to the previous month to 47.6, maintained its signal of employment loss for the sector. Thus, the SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which recorded an increase of 1.0 point compared to the previous month, sustained in February 2020 the recovery trend that began in the November 2019 period.
COMMENTARY:
The SAMEKS Composite Index, which maintained its course above the reference value of 50 in the February 2020 period as well, indicates that the positive course for the real sector has been carried into the 5th consecutive month. While both the services and the industry sectors were observed to maintain their positive general outlook in this period, the economic growth signals for the first quarter of the year remain favourable. On the other hand, the outlook of the employment sub-index below the reference value of 50 in both sectors indicates that the recovery in economic activity has not yet been fully reflected in the labour markets. The increases observed in the Real Sector Confidence Index and in the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization Rate announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye for February also confirm the positive outlook in SAMEKS. In parallel with the expectations that the recovery trend in economic activity will continue and that the current account balance will follow a moderate course in the coming period, we may estimate that the positive outlook for the real sector will continue in the March 2020 period as well.