In January 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 2.9 points compared to the previous month, reaching a value of 55.8.

While the rise of the services sector index by 3.7 points compared to the previous month to the level of 55.3 was effective in this increase observed in the index, the industry sector index declined by 2.2 points compared to the previous month to the level of 53.8 and limited the increase in the Composite Index.

While the positive reflection of the strong course in input purchases on business volume was effective in the increase observed in the services sector index, in industry it is seen that the sharp fall in the growth rate of new orders slowed down the increase across the sector.

Thus, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which rose by 2.9 points compared to the previous month to the level of 55.8 in the first month of the year, stood above the reference value of 50 and pointed to the vitality in the real sector.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined in January 2021 by 2.2 points compared to the previous month to the level of 53.8.

The decline of the new orders sub-index by 11.6 points at once compared to the previous month to the level of 51.0 played a decisive role in the loss of momentum experienced in the industry sector in this period.

The production sub-index, which rose by 4.8 points compared to the previous month to the level of 57.9, on the other hand, sustained the increase that began in December and presented a positive outlook.

Input purchases, which had gone into a rapid decline over the past two months, regained momentum as of the January 2021 period and rose to the level of 53.8 with an increase of 15.3 points.

Despite the increase in input purchases and production, the loss of momentum in new orders led firms in this period to turn to running down their existing stocks, and the finished goods stock sub-index declined by 6.8 points to the 44.7
level.

While the positive effect of the increase in production and input purchases was felt in the labour force directed at the sector, the employment sub-index rose by 13.9 points at once compared to the previous month to the level of 57.1.

Thus, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which despite declining by 2.2 points compared to the previous month moved above the reference value with 53.8 points, indicates that in the first month of the new year the wheels in industry continue to
turn.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose in January 2021 by 3.7 points compared to the previous month to the level of 55.3.

The business volume sub-index, which recorded an increase of 6.3 points compared to the previous month and rose to the level of 50.5, stood above the reference value again after an interval of 5 months (51.7 points in July 2020).

In this period it was observed that the strong course in input purchases continued, and the purchasing sub-index stood at the level of 69.8 despite declining by 0.4 points compared to the previous month.

As the strong course in input purchases materialized well above the increase in business volume, the finished goods stock sub-index recorded an increase of 7.3 points compared to the previous month and stood at the level of 55.1.

The employment sub-index, which despite losing 2.4 points of momentum compared to the previous month carried its course above the reference value into a third consecutive month with 56.6 points, sustained its positive outlook for the sector.

Thus, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which rose by 3.7 points compared to the previous month to the level of 55.3, sustained in the first month of the new year the positive outlook that began in the November period of the previous year.

COMMENTARY:

The SAMEKS Composite Index, which rose to 52.8 points in the last month of the year we have left behind and gave positive signals for the Turkish economy, sustained its upward trend in the first month of the new year as well and rose to the level of 55.8. Despite its course above the reference value, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which lost 2.2 points of momentum compared to the previous month, limited the increase in the Composite Index in this period. In the same period, the decline of the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization Rate announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye by 0.2 points to 75.4 percent confirms the loss of momentum in the industry sector. The Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which stood above the reference value for the third consecutive month, and the business volume, which recorded an increase in the sector after an interval of 5 months, stand out as the most positive development regarding the real sector in January.