The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index for January 2020 was announced in İstanbul. Accordingly, the SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 0.5 points compared with the previous month, falling to 51.8.

In January 2020 the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 0.5 points compared with the previous month, falling to 51.8.

While the fall of the services sector index by 1.3 points compared with the previous month to 50.2 was influential in this decline observed in the index in January, the industry sector index rose by 2.3 points to 57.1.

While the acceleration of new orders was decisive in the increase observed in the industry sector, the slowdown in the growth rate of input purchases stands out in the loss of momentum in the services sector.

Thus the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which continued its course above the reference value of 50, maintained in the January 2020 period the positive outlook it displayed in the last quarter of last year.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index rose in January 2020 by 2.3 points compared with the previous month to 57.1.

The rise of new orders by 4.3 points at once compared with the previous month to 57.2 played a decisive role in the increase in momentum for the industry sector in this period.

In connection with the movement observed in new orders, input purchases rose by 0.3 points compared with the previous month to 63.4.

In connection with these developments, the production sub-index rose by 5.7 points compared with the previous month to 59.0 and presented a strong outlook.

While the decline in the sector's finished goods stock continued in January as well, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index came in at 51.7 and maintained its positive outlook.

In this period the labour demand of firms operating in the industry sector also continued to increase and the employment sub-index rose by 3.3 points compared with the previous month to 55.9.

As a result of these developments, the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, which rose to 57.1, strongly maintained in January 2020 the recovery trend it had displayed in the last quarter of last year.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index declined in January 2020 by 1.3 points compared with the previous month to 50.2.

The input purchases sub-index, which declined in this period by 1.8 points compared with the previous month to 53.8, played a decisive role in the services sector index losing momentum.

In parallel with the slowdown in the growth rate of input purchases, the business volume sub-index also declined by 0.2 points compared with the previous month to 49.6 and presented a negative outlook.

As a result of these developments, the finished goods stock sub-index also declined by 5.7 points at once compared with the previous month to 45.6 points.

The employment sub-index, which declined by 2.5 points compared with the previous month to 48.0, also gave signals of employment losses for the sector in this period.

Thus, despite having lost momentum compared with the previous month, the SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which maintained its course above the reference value of 50, sustained the recovery trend that began in the November 2019 period.

COMMENTARY:

SAMEKS, which closed the last quarter of 2019 with an average of 51.3 points and gave strong signals as to the course of growth, maintained its positive outlook in the first month of 2020 as well. Rising in this period to 57.1 points, its highest value in the last two years, the SAMEKS Industry Index was the driver of the increase observed in the Composite Index. Despite having lost momentum compared with the previous month, the SAMEKS Services Index also stood above the 50 basis point level, pointing to the increase in the sector. The expansionary monetary policy, whose effect began to be felt more strongly with the interest rate cut decisions taken by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye as of July 2019, will play the leading role in economic activity maintaining its vitality in the coming period as well.