In July 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 10.2 points compared to the previous month, reaching a value of 55.5.

While the services sector index increasing by 13.5 points at once compared to the previous month to the level of 56.0 was effective in this rise observed in the index in July, the industry sector index at the level of 55.5 also sustained its increase of 0.5.

While the positive outlook in new orders, input purchases and, accordingly, in production continued across the industry sector, the recovery in the services sector also accelerated and the business volume sub-index rose above the reference value of 50 after an interval of 7 months. As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which recorded an increase of 10.2 points compared to the previous month, was realized above the reference value of 50 again after an interval of 4 months and stood at the highest level of the year with 55.5 points.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index rose by 3.8 points in July 2020 compared to the previous month, reaching the level of 55.5. Although the new orders sub-index for the sector recorded a decline of 0.4 points compared to the previous month, it was realized at the level of 52.6 and maintained its positive outlook in this period as well. In connection with this development, the increase in input purchases that began in June continued in July as well, and the purchasing sub-index rose by 0.7 points compared to the previous month and was realized at the level of 58.3. Thus, an increase in production was recorded across the industry sector after an interval of 5 months, and the production sub-index rose by 9.0 points at once to the level of 58.4. In the industry sector, which presents a generally positive outlook, the increase in employment that began last month continued in this period as well, and the employment sub-index maintained its positive outlook with 58.4 points. In conclusion, the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, which had pointed to a loss of production by spending the March, April and May period below the reference value of 50, sustained its June increase in July as well and presented a positive outlook for the third quarter of the year.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose by 13.5 points at once in July 2020 compared to the previous month, reaching the level of 56.0. It is observed that the rapid increase in input purchases in this period was the main determinant of the acceleration across the sector. Purchases, which rose by 14.8 points compared to the previous month to the level of 64.7, were the locomotive of the expansion in business volume. The business volume sub-index, which rose by 13.2 points compared to the previous month to the level of 51.9, stood above the reference value of 50 after an interval of 7 months and indicated that the recovery in the sector had accelerated as of the third quarter. As a result of these developments, the employment sub-index for the services sector also rose by 11.9 points compared to the previous month to the level of 55.3 and presented a positive outlook for the labour market. Thus, the SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which rose above the reference value of 50 for the first time since the February 2020 period, indicated that the recovery in the sector had gained momentum.

COMMENTARY:

It is observed that in the real sector, which is trying to compensate for the damage created by the pandemic together with the normalization process, the momentum has turned completely positive as of the July period. In addition to SAMEKS, which stood above the reference value of 50 again after an interval of 4 months in this period, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rising to %70.7 according to the data of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye and the real sector confidence standing above the threshold of 100 also show that the Turkish economy has made a good start to the 3rd quarter of the year.

According to the sectoral confidence index data announced by TÜİK, the rapid increases observed in the services, retail and construction sectors also confirm the leap in SAMEKS.

In the coming period we can foresee that, with the acceleration of the normalization observed in the travel, transport and tourism sectors, the momentum in the services sector will increase further, and that in addition, with the continuation of the positive outlook in the manufacturing sector, the increase in SAMEKS will continue.