MÜSİAD's March SAMEKS data were announced in İstanbul. Accordingly, in March 2019 the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 2.8 points compared with the previous month to reach 48.0.
MÜSİAD's March SAMEKS data were announced in İstanbul. Accordingly, in March 2019 the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 2.8 points compared with the previous month to reach 48.0.
The rise observed in the index was driven by the services index increasing by 3.3 points compared with the previous month to 48.7 points, while the industry index also rose by 1.3 points to the level of 46.8 and accelerated the recovery observed in the composite index.
The increases in input purchases played a decisive role in the recovery in both sectors; thus the rise in the Composite Index that began last month continued in March as well, and the calendar adjusted index value stood above the reference value of 50 after 7 months. Despite the marked recovery observed in the index, the fact that the seasonally and calendar adjusted index remains below the reference value of 50 indicates that the stagnation in economic activity continued in March as well.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Index rose by 1.3 points in March 2019 compared with the previous month to the level of 46.8. New orders for the industrial sector recorded an increase of 1.0 point compared with the previous month and rose to the level of 44.6. In parallel with the increase observed in new orders, input purchases recorded an increase of 1.9 points to reach 51.9 points, while industrial production also rose by 1.3 points compared with the previous month and stood at the level of 44.3. The continuation of input purchases above the reference value of 50 indicates that the acceleration in the sector will also continue in the period ahead. Following the declines observed in the January and February periods, the fact that the suppliers' delivery time sub-index rose above the reference value of 50 again as of March shows that, according to sector representatives, the disruptions in supply chains have come to an end. In parallel with this recovery observed in the industrial sector, employment for the sector returned to an upward path after an interval of 10 months and, rising by 1.5 points compared with the previous month, stood at the level of 50.0. Thus the recovery trend observed in the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Index in the previous month continued in the March 2019 period as well; nevertheless, the index remaining below the reference value of 50 indicated that the sluggish course in the sector continues.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Index rose by 3.3 points in March 2019 compared with the previous month to the level of 48.7. Input purchases for the services sector rose by as much as 8.6 points compared with the previous month and stood at the level of 59.3. Thus input purchases for the sector rose to their highest level in the last 7 months. Depending on this increase in input purchases, the business volume of the sector recorded an increase of 1.7 points compared with the previous month and rose to 42.1 points. Despite this increase, it is striking that the business volume in the sector maintains its weak course. As in the industrial sector, in the services sector too the suppliers' delivery time sub-index rose above the reference value of 50 again as of this period and presented a positive outlook. Depending on these developments, the employment sub-index for the services sector recorded an increase of 3.3 points compared with the previous month and stood at the level of 47.1. Thus, while the recovery in the seasonally and calendar adjusted services index was observed to continue despite maintaining its course below the threshold value, the calendar adjusted index rising above 50 points again after an interval of 6 months is striking.
COMMENTARY:
Although its average for the first quarter of the year remained below the reference value of 50, it is observed that the SAMEKS Composite Index entered a recovery process in February and March. The official data on the real sector announced in this period also confirmed the recovery in SAMEKS. The increases observed in the Real Sector Confidence Index, the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization Rate and the Sectoral Confidence Indices for the March 2019 period show that economic activity gained momentum in this period compared with the previous month. The increase observed in input purchases in both main sectors of SAMEKS indicates that firms' confidence in the economy continues and signals that the recovery process in economic activity will also continue in the period ahead.