In March 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 10.2 points compared with the previous month, falling to 40.3.
The fall of the services sector index by 11.1 points compared with the previous month to 39.6 was influential in this decline observed in the index in March, while the industry sector index also declined by 7.6 points to 42.9.
Input purchases were decisive in the decline observed in the services sector, while the rapid loss of momentum in new orders was decisive in the decline observed in the industry sector. In connection with these developments, sharp falls occurred in the business volume sub-index for the services sector and in the production sub-index for the industry sector. Thus the SAMEKS Composite Index, which has been calculated since January 2013, fell to the lowest level in its history due to the contractionary effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the real sector.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index declined by 7.6 points in March 2020 compared with the previous month, falling to 42.9. The fall in new orders by 12.7 points at once compared with the previous month to 36.2 played a decisive role in the sharp decline in the industry sector in this period. In connection with the decline observed in new orders, input purchases lost 4.6 points of momentum compared with the previous month, falling to 52.8. While the decrease in the sector's finished goods stock continued in March as well, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index also declined to 48.4 and presented a negative outlook. The loss of momentum in the labour demand of firms operating in the industry sector likewise continued, and although the employment sub-index recorded an increase of 0.9 compared with the previous month, it stood at 49.9. In connection with these developments, the production sub-index declined by 9.6 points compared with the previous month to 40.5. Thus the 3-month upward trend of the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index came to an end and the index fell to its lowest level in the last 10 months at 42.9 points.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index declined by 11.1 points in March 2020 compared with the previous month, falling to 39.6. In this period, the input purchases sub-index, which fell by 18.3 points at once compared with the previous month to 41.3, played a decisive role in the sharp fall of the services sector index. In parallel with the decrease in input purchases, the sector's business volume also fell by 17.2 points to 29.7 points, pointing to the worst level in the history of the index. In this period, the sector's finished goods stock sub-index declined by 11.2 points to 39.8 points, while the suppliers' delivery time sub-index also declined by 1.3 points to 48.8. The employment sub-index, which fell by 1.2 points compared with the previous month to 46.3, maintained its signal of employment losses for the sector. Thus the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which had risen above the reference value of 50 in February 2020 and signalled a recovery, fell in March 2020 to 39.6 points, the lowest level in the history of the index.
COMMENTARY:
While the global economy is expected to experience one of the sharpest contractions in history due to the coronavirus pandemic, it is seen that the Turkish economy has also been affected quite negatively by this process. While declines were recorded in the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization Rate, the Real Sector Confidence Index and the Sectoral Confidence Index for the March 2020 period, SAMEKS also confirmed the negative outlook for the real sector. The negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which is observed to affect in particular the services sector whose average weight within the global economy is around %65, are also being felt seriously by the manufacturing industry sector. In the coming period, while the supports and incentives announced within the scope of the Economic Stability Shield package are expected to relieve the real sector relatively, the loss of momentum in economic activity is nonetheless expected to continue. In this context, we estimate that the decline in SAMEKS will lose momentum in April but that the index will continue to move below the reference value of 50.
The fall of the services sector index by 11.1 points compared with the previous month to 39.6 was influential in this decline observed in the index in March, while the industry sector index also declined by 7.6 points to 42.9.
Input purchases were decisive in the decline observed in the services sector, while the rapid loss of momentum in new orders was decisive in the decline observed in the industry sector. In connection with these developments, sharp falls occurred in the business volume sub-index for the services sector and in the production sub-index for the industry sector. Thus the SAMEKS Composite Index, which has been calculated since January 2013, fell to the lowest level in its history due to the contractionary effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the real sector.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index declined by 7.6 points in March 2020 compared with the previous month, falling to 42.9. The fall in new orders by 12.7 points at once compared with the previous month to 36.2 played a decisive role in the sharp decline in the industry sector in this period. In connection with the decline observed in new orders, input purchases lost 4.6 points of momentum compared with the previous month, falling to 52.8. While the decrease in the sector's finished goods stock continued in March as well, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index also declined to 48.4 and presented a negative outlook. The loss of momentum in the labour demand of firms operating in the industry sector likewise continued, and although the employment sub-index recorded an increase of 0.9 compared with the previous month, it stood at 49.9. In connection with these developments, the production sub-index declined by 9.6 points compared with the previous month to 40.5. Thus the 3-month upward trend of the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index came to an end and the index fell to its lowest level in the last 10 months at 42.9 points.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index declined by 11.1 points in March 2020 compared with the previous month, falling to 39.6. In this period, the input purchases sub-index, which fell by 18.3 points at once compared with the previous month to 41.3, played a decisive role in the sharp fall of the services sector index. In parallel with the decrease in input purchases, the sector's business volume also fell by 17.2 points to 29.7 points, pointing to the worst level in the history of the index. In this period, the sector's finished goods stock sub-index declined by 11.2 points to 39.8 points, while the suppliers' delivery time sub-index also declined by 1.3 points to 48.8. The employment sub-index, which fell by 1.2 points compared with the previous month to 46.3, maintained its signal of employment losses for the sector. Thus the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which had risen above the reference value of 50 in February 2020 and signalled a recovery, fell in March 2020 to 39.6 points, the lowest level in the history of the index.
COMMENTARY:
While the global economy is expected to experience one of the sharpest contractions in history due to the coronavirus pandemic, it is seen that the Turkish economy has also been affected quite negatively by this process. While declines were recorded in the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization Rate, the Real Sector Confidence Index and the Sectoral Confidence Index for the March 2020 period, SAMEKS also confirmed the negative outlook for the real sector. The negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which is observed to affect in particular the services sector whose average weight within the global economy is around %65, are also being felt seriously by the manufacturing industry sector. In the coming period, while the supports and incentives announced within the scope of the Economic Stability Shield package are expected to relieve the real sector relatively, the loss of momentum in economic activity is nonetheless expected to continue. In this context, we estimate that the decline in SAMEKS will lose momentum in April but that the index will continue to move below the reference value of 50.