In May 2020 the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 11.8 points compared with the previous month to the value of 45.7.

While the rise of the industry sector index by 19.7 points compared with the previous month to the level of 47.9 was influential in this increase observed in the index in May, the services sector index also rose to the level of 43.9 with an increase of 7.0 points.

While the effects of the rapid expansion realized in input purchases were observed in the increase seen in both sectors, production in the industry sector and business volume in the services sector accordingly gained serious momentum. With these developments, it was recorded that the worst level in the history of the index observed in April was rapidly left behind. On the other hand, the SAMEKS Composite Index, which by rising 11.8 points compared with the previous month signalled that the recovery process in the real sector had gained momentum, continued its course below the reference value of 50 in May as well and indicates that the stagnant picture that began in March is continuing.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index rose in May 2020 by 19.7 points at once compared with the previous month to the level of 47.9. In this period, the rise of new orders by 27.6 points compared with the previous month to the level of 47.2 was influential in the recovery observed in the industry sector. Accordingly, input purchases for the sector gained momentum by 23.2 points compared with the previous month and rose to the level of 52.0. In this period the decline in the sector's finished goods stock also lost pace and the sub-index, increasing by 8.0 points compared with the previous month, rose to the level of 44.2. In May a relative recovery was also recorded in the labour demand of firms operating in the industry sector, and the sub-index in question recorded an increase of 3.9 points compared with the previous month and rose to the level of 43.3. In line with these developments the production sub-index rose by 27.7 points at once compared with the previous month to the level of 45.8. Thus the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, rising by 19.7 points compared with the previous month, presented a picture of serious recovery.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose in May 2020 by 7.0 points compared with the previous month to the level of 43.9. In this period the input purchases sub-index, which rose by 19.7 points compared with the previous month to the level of 51.7, played a determining role in the rapid rise of the services sector index. In line with the increase in purchases, the business volume for the sector rose by 10.1 points at once compared with the previous month to the level of 40.3 points. The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which despite recording an increase of 1.8 points compared with the previous month was realized at the level of 44.5, indicates that the problems observed in the supply of goods and services by firms operating in the sector are continuing. Despite the recovery observed across the sector, the decline in labour demand continued throughout May as well and the employment sub-index, decreasing by 6.6 points compared with the previous month, fell back to the level of 43.0 points. Thus the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index recorded an increase of 7.0 points in the May 2020 period and rose to the level of 43.9.

COMMENTARY:

It is seen that the effects on the Turkish economy of the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a very serious crisis in the entire global economy in terms of both supply and demand, have relatively diminished as of May. While increases were observed in this period in manufacturing industry capacity utilization, the real sector confidence index and the sectoral confidence indices, SAMEKS, which rapidly moved away from its historic bottom level, also confirmed the recovery in the real sector. The positive effects on the markets of the supports and incentives taken by the economic administration, which as of this period exceed TRY 260 billion, are expected to become more evident with the normalization process that will begin as of June and thereafter. Proceeding from these developments, it is estimated that the recovery trend in SAMEKS will continue in the coming period as well and that as of the second half of the year the momentum in the Turkish economy will rapidly turn positive.