In November 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 0.5 points compared to the previous month, falling to a value of 49.0.

The industry sector index declining by 2.0 points compared to the previous month to 46.3 was effective in the loss of momentum in the index. The services sector index, on the other hand, rose by 1.9 points compared to the previous month to 50.4 and limited the loss of momentum observed in the Composite Index.

In this period, the decreases observed in new orders and input purchases were effective in the decline observed in the industry sector index, while in the services sector index the stagnation in business volume is seen to have continued although input purchases recorded a significant increase.

As a result of these developments, the decline in the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which fell by 0.5 points compared to the previous month to 49.0 and which began last month, continued in November as well.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index declined by 2.0 points in November 2020 compared to the previous month, falling to 46.3.

While new orders were observed to maintain their stagnant course in this period, the sub-index in question declined by 2.5 points compared to the previous month, falling to 41.8.

Input purchases, which were observed to have recorded an increase as of June, when the normalization process began, declined by 11.8 points in November compared to the previous month, falling to 43.7.

The production sub-index, which remained at 47.3 despite recording an increase of 3.0 points compared to the previous month, also presented a negative outlook for the industry sector in November.

While it drew attention that firms turned to consumption from stocks in this period, when production and input purchases were stagnant, in this context the finished goods stock sub-index declined by 7.8 points, falling to 45.6.

The rise of the suppliers’ delivery time sub-index by 2.2 points to 55.2 indicates that the recovery in firms’ goods and services supply processes is continuing.

The employment sub-index, which came in at 52.4 despite declining by 3.7 points compared to the previous month, also indicated that the momentum in recruitment for the industry sector is continuing.

As a result of these developments, the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, which came in at 46.3, continued to present a stagnant picture for the last quarter of the year.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose by 1.9 points in November 2020 compared to the previous month, climbing to 50.4.

Input purchases rising by 6.9 points compared to the previous month to 65.2 was effective in this increase observed in the index.

The finished goods stock sub-index for the sector, on the other hand, rose by 1.6 points compared to the previous month to 42.3, but maintained its course below the reference value of 50.

Similar to the industry sector, suppliers’ delivery time continued to recover in the services sector as well and rose by 1.6 points to 58.7.

The employment sub-index for the services sector, on the other hand, rose by 7.2 points at once compared to the previous month to 52.5 and gained significant momentum in this period.

As a result of these developments, business volume for the sector declined by 2.1 points to 40.0 and maintained its stagnant appearance in November as well.

Thus, the SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which rose by 1.9 points compared to the previous month to 50.4, presented a positive outlook for the last quarter of the year.

COMMENTARY:

SAMEKS, which spent the July, August and September periods above the reference value of 50 and thereby indicated a recovery for the real sector, remained below the reference value in November as well, after October, indicating stagnation for the last quarter of the year. While the loss of momentum for the industry sector was observed to continue in this period, in the services sector the three-month stagnant picture has ended and the needle has turned positive again. In this context, industry sector data for December will be decisive in the last-quarter performance of the SAMEKS Composite Index, which declined for two consecutive months after moving above the reference value of 50 throughout the third quarter of the year.