In August 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 4.9 points compared with the previous month, falling to a value of 47.8.

This decline observed in the index was driven by the services sector index falling by 8.4 points at once compared with the previous month, down to a level of 47.4. The industry sector index, on the other hand, rose by 5.1 points compared with the previous month to a level of 51.1, limiting the loss of momentum observed in the Composite Index.

The sharp decline observed in the growth rate of input purchases was the determining factor behind the slowdown that took place in the services sector in this period. As for the recovery observed in the industry sector, the driving factor was new orders rising back above the reference value of 50 after a six-month interval.

As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which fell to a level of 47.8 in August, dropped below the reference value of 50, indicating that economic activity slowed compared with the previous month.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 5.1 points in August 2021 compared with the previous month, to a level of 51.1.

New orders rising by 17.6 points at once compared with the previous month to 58.9 points, the highest level of the last eight months, was the determining factor behind the acceleration observed in the industry sector. Input purchases, which had recorded increases throughout the last seven months, contracted as of August, falling by 23.7 points compared with the previous month to a level of 31.8.

Despite the leap in new orders, the sharp decline in input purchases limited the recovery in production, and although the sub-index in question recorded an increase of 7.3 points compared with the previous month, it remained at 47.8 points.

Despite an acceleration of 4.4 points compared with the previous month, the finished goods stock sub-index stood just below the reference value of 50 at its level of 49.9 and continued its decline in this period as well.

While the positive outlook in the suppliers’ delivery time sub-index, which rose to a level of 58.3 with an increase of 0.1 points, continued in this period as well, the employment sub-index, which fell by 18.6 points at once to a level of 34.2, indicated that labour demand across the sector declined sharply.

As a result of these developments, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which rose by 5.1 points compared with the previous month to a level of 51.1, came in above the reference value of 50, signalling a recovery across the sector.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index fell by 8.4 points in August 2021 compared with the previous month, to a level of 47.4.

Input purchases, which continued to increase at 62.6 points but drew attention with a loss of momentum of 10.3 points compared with the previous month, fell to their lowest level in the last five months. The finished goods stock sub-index, which came in at a level of 25.9 after falling by 22.2 points at once compared with the previous month, declined to the lowest level in the history of the index.

Thus the business volume sub-index for the services sector fell by 8.4 points compared with the previous month to a level of 38.2, the lowest level of the last 14 months.

While the suppliers’ delivery time sub-index, which came in at a level of 50.6 despite losing 6.6 points of momentum compared with the previous month, maintained its positive outlook, the employment sub-index, which rose by 0.8 points to a level of 57.6, indicated that labour demand in the services sector continued to increase.

Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which fell by 8.4 points in August compared with the previous month to a level of 47.4, presented a negative outlook for this period.

COMMENTARY:

The SAMEKS Composite Index, which fell to a level of 47.8 points in August, indicates that economic activity in this period slowed compared with the previous month. While this level is the lowest of the Composite Index in the last 14 months (since the June 2020 period), it gave a negative signal for the growth rate in the third quarter of the year. In this period, the Services Sector Index declined to its lowest level in the last 14 months, presenting a negative outlook, while the Industry Sector Index came in at an increasing level once again after a three-month interval.