In December 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 3.1 points compared with the previous month to 48.8.
The services sector index falling by 2.1 points compared with the previous month to 48.1 points was influential in this loss of momentum observed in the index, while the industry sector index, despite remaining above the reference value, lost 5.3 points of momentum compared with the previous month and declined to 51.4 points.
In this period, the contraction in business volume due to the decline in input purchases was influential in the decline observed in the services sector. In industry, the sharp decline in new orders compared with the previous month caused production to fall across the sector.
As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which stood at 48.8, fell to its lowest level in the last 4 months and, for the first time since the August 2021 period, came in below the reference value of 50 points.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined in December 2021 by 5.3 points compared with the previous month to 51.4.
New orders, which fell by 8.0 points at once compared with the previous month to 49.6, were the determining factor in the loss of momentum recorded across the industry sector in this period.
With the increases in input costs continuing in this period as well, firms were seen to have maintained their advance purchases, and despite the contraction observed in new orders, purchases rose by 4.1 points to 78.6. With a contraction recorded in new orders despite the increase in purchases, the finished goods stock recorded an increase, and the said sub-index, which rose by 8.5 points at once compared with the previous month, stood at 50.6 points. The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which fell by 5.6 points in this period to 49.9, also indicates that disruptions were experienced in firms' supply processes.
As a result of these developments, the production sub-index for the industry sector fell by 8.7 points compared with the previous month to 40.7. The employment sub-index, on the other hand, rose by 1.1 points compared with the previous month to 51.8 and maintained its positive outlook in this period as well.
Thus the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which declined by 5.3 points compared with the previous month to 51.4 points, showed that the increase across the sector lost momentum compared with the previous month.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index declined in December 2021 by 2.1 points compared with the previous month to 48.1.
In this period, input purchases fell by 7.6 points compared with the previous month to 64.3. Together with this loss of momentum in the increase in input purchases, the business volume for the services sector fell by 0.6 points compared with the previous month to 41.2. This level was the lowest level of the business volume sub-index in the final quarter of the year.
The finished goods stock sub-index, which fell by 2.6 points compared with the previous month to 41.8, and the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which fell by 2.8 points to 47.1, were the other factors influential in the contraction observed in the services sector index in this period. As a result of these developments, labour demand for the sector also maintained its stagnant appearance and the employment sub-index fell by 0.7 points compared with the previous month to 47.4.
Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which fell by 2.1 points in December to 48.1, dropped below the reference value of 50 for the first time in the final quarter of the year and indicated that economic activity across the sector contracted compared with the previous month.
COMMENTARY:
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which completed the 3rd quarter of the year with an average of 50.5, closed the final quarter of the year with an average of 51.9. While the positive picture of the real sector in October and November was influential in this average, a visible loss of momentum occurred in the final month of the year. While the effect of the excessive fluctuations observed in the exchange rate during December was being followed in this development, a rapid normalization trend was recorded in the markets following the Turkish Lira Promotion Package announced by President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 20 December. SAMEKS completing 2021 with an average of 51.6 points supports our expectation of double-digit growth in the Turkish economy for the year as a whole. In addition to the end of the excessive volatility in the exchange rate, investments, which are expected to increase with domestic demand, net external demand and falling interest rates, give important signals that the Turkish economy will also decouple positively in 2022.
The services sector index falling by 2.1 points compared with the previous month to 48.1 points was influential in this loss of momentum observed in the index, while the industry sector index, despite remaining above the reference value, lost 5.3 points of momentum compared with the previous month and declined to 51.4 points.
In this period, the contraction in business volume due to the decline in input purchases was influential in the decline observed in the services sector. In industry, the sharp decline in new orders compared with the previous month caused production to fall across the sector.
As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which stood at 48.8, fell to its lowest level in the last 4 months and, for the first time since the August 2021 period, came in below the reference value of 50 points.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined in December 2021 by 5.3 points compared with the previous month to 51.4.
New orders, which fell by 8.0 points at once compared with the previous month to 49.6, were the determining factor in the loss of momentum recorded across the industry sector in this period.
With the increases in input costs continuing in this period as well, firms were seen to have maintained their advance purchases, and despite the contraction observed in new orders, purchases rose by 4.1 points to 78.6. With a contraction recorded in new orders despite the increase in purchases, the finished goods stock recorded an increase, and the said sub-index, which rose by 8.5 points at once compared with the previous month, stood at 50.6 points. The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which fell by 5.6 points in this period to 49.9, also indicates that disruptions were experienced in firms' supply processes.
As a result of these developments, the production sub-index for the industry sector fell by 8.7 points compared with the previous month to 40.7. The employment sub-index, on the other hand, rose by 1.1 points compared with the previous month to 51.8 and maintained its positive outlook in this period as well.
Thus the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which declined by 5.3 points compared with the previous month to 51.4 points, showed that the increase across the sector lost momentum compared with the previous month.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index
The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index declined in December 2021 by 2.1 points compared with the previous month to 48.1.
In this period, input purchases fell by 7.6 points compared with the previous month to 64.3. Together with this loss of momentum in the increase in input purchases, the business volume for the services sector fell by 0.6 points compared with the previous month to 41.2. This level was the lowest level of the business volume sub-index in the final quarter of the year.
The finished goods stock sub-index, which fell by 2.6 points compared with the previous month to 41.8, and the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which fell by 2.8 points to 47.1, were the other factors influential in the contraction observed in the services sector index in this period. As a result of these developments, labour demand for the sector also maintained its stagnant appearance and the employment sub-index fell by 0.7 points compared with the previous month to 47.4.
Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which fell by 2.1 points in December to 48.1, dropped below the reference value of 50 for the first time in the final quarter of the year and indicated that economic activity across the sector contracted compared with the previous month.
COMMENTARY:
The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which completed the 3rd quarter of the year with an average of 50.5, closed the final quarter of the year with an average of 51.9. While the positive picture of the real sector in October and November was influential in this average, a visible loss of momentum occurred in the final month of the year. While the effect of the excessive fluctuations observed in the exchange rate during December was being followed in this development, a rapid normalization trend was recorded in the markets following the Turkish Lira Promotion Package announced by President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 20 December. SAMEKS completing 2021 with an average of 51.6 points supports our expectation of double-digit growth in the Turkish economy for the year as a whole. In addition to the end of the excessive volatility in the exchange rate, investments, which are expected to increase with domestic demand, net external demand and falling interest rates, give important signals that the Turkish economy will also decouple positively in 2022.