In February 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 3.8 points compared with the previous month to 51.8.

This decline observed in the index was driven by the fall of the services sector index by 4.9 points compared with the previous month to 51.9, while the industry sector index also declined by 1.8 points compared with the previous month to 51.9.

The loss of momentum observed in the services sector index was driven by the contraction in business volume resulting from the slowdown in the rate of increase in input purchases; in industry, meanwhile, production fell back below the reference value after an interval of 2 months as a result of the decrease in new orders.

Thus, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which declined by 3.8 points to 51.8, indicated that economic activity lost momentum compared with the previous month, yet by maintaining its course above the reference value of 50 it signalled that the buoyant outlook in the real sector continues.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

In February 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 1.8 points compared with the previous month to 51.9.

The fall of new orders by 2.4 points compared with the previous month to 48.2 played a determining role in the contraction observed in the industry sector in this period.

Accordingly, production across the sector declined sharply, recording a fall of 9.4 points compared with the previous month to stand at 48.7.

Despite the decline in new orders, the strong level of 58.6 points reached by input purchases with an increase of 4.3 points signalled the positive expectations of sector representatives for the coming period.

Owing to the increase in purchases and the decrease in new orders, a relative recovery was recorded in the finished goods stock and the sub-index in question rose by 2.9 points to 47.7.

In this period, the rise of the employment sub-index by 4.6 points to 63.0 signalled that the recovery trend in labour demand across the sector continues.

Thus, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which despite losing 1.8 points of momentum compared with the previous month remained above the reference value at 51.9 points, indicates that, as in the December and January period, the wheels of industry continue to turn.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

In February 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index declined by 4.9 points compared with the previous month to 51.9.

The fall of input purchases by 7.0 points at once to 62.5 was the determining factor in the flat picture across the sector in this period.

Business volume in the services sector recorded a decline of 3.5 points compared with the previous month to stand at 46.9, presenting a weak outlook.

The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which fell by 7.7 points at once compared with the previous month to 48.9, indicates that pandemic conditions have seriously and adversely affected the supply processes of firms.

The employment sub-index, which rose by 0.3 points to 57.3, showed that the positive course of labour demand in the services sector continues. 

Thus, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which declined by 4.9 points compared with the previous month to 51.9, maintained its course above the reference value of 50, yet pointed to a loss of momentum for the first time after an interval of 3 months.

COMMENTARY:

The course of the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index above the reference value of 50, standing at 51.8 in February, has reached its third consecutive month. Nevertheless, the fall in the rate of increase compared with the previous month in both the industry and the services sectors indicates that the recovery in the real sector lost momentum in this period. On the other hand, the input purchases and employment sub-indices maintained their positive outlook in both sectors and signalled the positive expectations of the real sector for the coming period. In the period in question, the decrease observed in the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye confirmed the loss of momentum in the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, while the increase observed in the Real Sector Confidence Index confirmed the positive expectations of firms for the coming period.