In June 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 1.0 points compared to the previous month to a value of 44.1.

The rise of the industry sector index by 7.0 points compared to the previous month to a level of 51.6 was effective in this increase observed in the index in June, while the services sector index, at a level of 42.4, recorded a limited expansion compared to the previous month with a 0.5-point increase.

While a rapid increase was recorded in new orders and, accordingly, in input purchases in the industry sector, it is observed that the stagnation in business volume for the services sector continued in this period as well. As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which recorded a 1.0-point increase compared to the previous month, maintained the recovery trend that began in May; nevertheless, by remaining below the reference value of 50, it indicated that the stagnation in the real sector has not yet been fully left behind.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index rose in June 2020 by 7.0 points compared to the previous month to a level of 51.6. The rise of new orders by 9.8 points at once compared to the previous month to a level of 52.8 played a decisive role in the industry sector gaining momentum in this period. In line with the acceleration observed in new orders, input purchases also rose by 9.0 points compared to the previous month to a level of 57.5. In connection with these developments, the production sub-index rose by 8.5 points compared to the previous month to a level of 49.2. While no change was observed in the sector's finished goods stock compared to the previous month, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index came in at a level of 46.7 and maintained its negative outlook. In this period, the labour demand of firms operating in the industry sector increased rapidly and the employment sub-index rose by 13.5 points compared to the previous month to a level of 58.1. As a result of these developments, the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, which rose to a level of 51.6, came in above the reference value of 50 again after a three-month interval and indicated that the recovery process in the industry sector has accelerated.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose in June 2020 by 0.5 points compared to the previous month to a level of 42.4. In this period, the input purchases sub-index, which rose by 3.4 points compared to the previous month to a level of 50.1, played a decisive role in the increase observed in the services sector. The continuation of the weak outlook in the business volume sub-index, which, despite recording a 0.7-point increase compared to the previous month, maintained its course below the reference value at 38.4 points, caused a 5.6-point increase in the finished goods stock. The employment sub-index for the services sector, on the other hand, despite recording a 2.5-point increase compared to the previous month, came in at a level of 42.8 and maintained its negative outlook in June as well. Thus, the SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which recorded a 0.5-point increase compared to the previous month and presented a relative recovery, maintained its course below the reference value of 50, pointing to the stagnation in the sector.

COMMENTARY:

In SAMEKS, which as of May began to move away from its “worst” level in April, it is seen that the recovery has gained momentum as of the June period. In particular, the rise of the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index above the reference value of 50 again indicates that the outlook for the manufacturing industry has begun to turn positive as of this period. The official data announced for the real sector in June also confirm the recovery in SAMEKS. Manufacturing industry capacity utilization, which fell to 61.6 percent in April because of the COVID-19 pandemic, continued to recover in June following May and recorded an increase for the second consecutive month. In parallel with this development, it is seen that a strong increase was also recorded in the real sector confidence index in the same period.

In the light of these developments, we can state that the positive effect on the markets of the normalization process that began as of June has limited the likely economic contraction in the second quarter of the year.