In March 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 0.4 points compared with the previous month, falling to 51.1.

This decline observed in the index was driven by the services sector index falling by 1.1 points compared with the previous month to 50.6, while the industry sector index also declined by 0.9 points compared with the previous month to 50.8.

The loss of momentum observed in the services sector index was driven by the contraction in business volume linked to the slowdown in the pace of increase in input purchases; in industry, on the other hand, it was observed that production rose above the reference value despite the decline in new orders.

Thus, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which fell by 0.4 points to 51.1, indicated that the vibrant outlook in the real sector continues by maintaining its course above the reference value of 50 despite losing momentum compared with the previous month.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 0.9 points in March 2021 compared with the previous month, falling to 50.8.

The fall in new orders by 0.3 points compared with the previous month to 47.6 was decisive in the loss of momentum observed in the industrial sector in this period.

Despite this development, production across the sector recorded a rapid increase and rose by 4.2 points compared with the previous month to 53.0.

In March, a decline of 5.9 points was recorded in purchases; nevertheless, the sub-index in question maintained its course above the reference value at 52.9 points and continued to increase. The finished goods stock sub-index, which fell by 4.3 points compared with the previous month, stood at 43.2.

In this period, the employment sub-index remained above the reference value at 51.9, but lost momentum considerably by falling 10.5 points at once.

Thus, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which stood above the reference value at 50.8 points despite losing 0.9 in momentum compared with the previous month, indicates that the wheels continued to turn in industry throughout the first quarter of the year.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index declined by 1.1 points in March 2021 compared with the previous month, falling to 50.6.

Business volume relating to the services sector recorded a decline of 3.4 points compared with the previous month, standing at 42.4, and continued to lose momentum following the recovery seen in January.

Accordingly, input purchases also fell by 1.9 points to 60.1, supporting the stagnant picture across the sector.

The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which rose by 4.4 points compared with the previous month to 53.4 points, above the reference value, indicated that the adverse effects created by pandemic conditions on companies' supply processes in the previous month had disappeared.

The employment sub-index, which fell by 2.3 points to 54.9, showed that although labour demand across the services sector lost pace, its positive course continued.

Thus, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which declined by 1.1 points compared with the previous month to 50.6, maintained in this period as well its course above the reference value of 50, which it had risen above in November 2020.

COMMENTARY:

The course of the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which stood at 51.1 in March, above the reference value of 50, has reached its fourth consecutive month. Thus SAMEKS, which closed the first quarter of the year with an average of 52.6, indicated that the positive growth process in the Turkish economy continues. On the other hand, the decline in the pace of increase in both the industry and services sectors in March compared with the previous month shows that the recovery in the real sector has lost momentum. In the period in question, the decrease observed in Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye confirms the loss of momentum in the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, while the increases observed in the Real Sector Confidence Index confirm companies' positive expectations for the coming period.