In October 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 0.5 points compared with the previous month, falling to a value of 49.6.

The loss of momentum in the index was driven by the industry sector index declining by 1.9 points compared with the previous month to a level of 48.1. The services sector index, which despite rising by 0.8 points compared with the previous month remained at 48.5 and thus continued its course below the reference value, also maintained its negative outlook.

In October, the stagnant outlook of new orders in the industry sector negatively affected the production sub-index, while in this period the increase in input purchases for the services sector continued; total business volume, however, continued to follow a weak course.

As a result of these developments, the upward trend of the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which declined by 0.5 points compared with the previous month to a level of 49.6, came to an end as of October after continuing throughout the third quarter of the year.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index declined by 1.9 points in October 2020 compared with the previous month, falling to a level of 48.1.

Input purchases, which have maintained their momentum without interruption since June, continued to rise in this period as well, increasing by 3.8 points compared with the previous month to a level of 55.6.

New orders for October, on the other hand, declined by 0.6 points compared with the previous month to a level of 46.4, thus continuing their course below the reference value.

Despite the continuing increase in input purchases, the decline in new orders led to a rise in the finished goods stock, and the sub-index in question increased by 2.2 points to a level of 53.4.

The employment sub-index, which maintained its positive outlook at a level of 56.6 points despite declining by 0.4 points compared with the previous month, presented a favourable picture for labour markets.

As a result of these developments, the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index, which declined by 1.9 points compared with the previous month to a level of 48.1, made a negative start to the last quarter of 2020.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index rose by 0.8 points in October 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching a level of 48.5.

Input purchases for the sector continued to increase in this period as well, and purchases, which gained 2.6 points of momentum compared with the previous month, rose to a level of 58.0.

Finally, the weak picture of business volume, which recorded an increase in July but followed a course below the reference value in August and September, continued in this period as well, and the business volume sub-index remained at 42.6 points despite recording an increase of 1.8 points compared with the previous month.

In this period, a visible recovery was recorded in suppliers' delivery time, and the sub-index in question rose by as much as 8.3 points compared with the previous month to a level of 57.1.

The employment sub-index for the services sector, on the other hand, declined by 0.9 points compared with the previous month to a level of 44.8 and maintained its stagnant picture.

Thus the SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which came in at a level of 48.5 by recording a relative increase compared with the previous month, continued its course below the reference value and presented a negative outlook.

COMMENTARY:

The SAMEKS Composite Index, which followed a course above the reference value of 50 throughout the third quarter of 2020 and presented a positive picture for the real sector with an average of 52.1 points for this period, declined to a level of 49.6 in October and thus began the last quarter of the year with a decrease.

While the negative picture of the services sector, which displayed a weak outlook in August and September, continued in October as well, it is observed that in this period the industry sector remained below the reference value for the first time since May, when the steps towards normalization following the COVID-19 pandemic were taken.

While the continuation of the upward trend in input purchases in both sectors indicates that sector representatives' positive expectations for the coming period persist, the negative impact of the volatile course of the exchange rate throughout October is felt particularly on the industry sector.