In October 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 5.4 points compared to the previous month, reaching a value of 56.5.

This increase observed in the index was driven by the services sector index rising by 7.0 points compared to the previous month to 56.3 points, while the industry sector index also recorded an increase of 2.8 points compared to the previous month and maintained its positive course at a level of 56.9 points.

In this period, the acceleration observed in business volume was decisive in the increase observed in the services sector, while in the industry sector the fact that new orders, which have been on an upward trend since August, accelerated even further compared to the previous month positively affected production.

As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which rose to 56.5 in October, pointed to the vitality of economic activity in the real sector.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 2.8 points in October 2021 compared to the previous month, reaching 56.9.

New orders, which rose by 5.0 points compared to the previous month to 57.7, were the determinant of the expansion recorded across the industry sector in this period.

The continuation of the positive outlook of new orders also increased input purchases, and the sub-index in question rose by 2.3 points compared to the previous month to 68.0.

As a result of these developments, the industry sector production sub-index rose by 1.0 point compared to the previous month to 55.7.

While the finished goods stock sub-index, which increased by 12.2 points compared to the previous month, rose to 51.6, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which rose by 3.4 points to 61.5, also maintained its positive outlook in this period.

The employment sub-index, which signalled contraction last month by falling below the reference value, rose by 7.1 points to 53.0 and pointed to an increase in labour demand in the sector in this period.

Thus, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which recorded an increase of 2.8 points compared to the previous month and rose to 56.9 points, the highest level of the last 15 months, showed that the recovery across the sector has gained momentum.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 7.0 points in October 2021 compared to the previous month, reaching 56.3.

In this period, input purchases continued to increase without slowing down, and the sub-index in question rose by 3.1 points compared to the previous month to 65.9.

In line with the positive course in input purchases, business volume gained vitality across the services sector, and the sub-index, which recorded an increase of 7.4 points compared to the previous month and rose to 51.2, exceeded the reference value of 50 for the first time after an interval of 15 months.

The suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which presented a negative picture last month by falling below the reference value, rose by 12.3 points to 57.3 and indicated that a serious recovery was observed in the supply problems of companies.

It was observed that the increase in labour demand across the services sector continued in October as well, and in this period the employment sub-index, which recorded an increase of 3.9 points compared to the previous month, rose to 58.0.

Thus, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which rose by 7.0 points in October compared to the previous month to 56.3, once again exceeded the reference value after a two-month interval and pointed to a recovery across the sector.

COMMENTARY:

The SAMEKS Composite Index, which left the third quarter of the year behind with an average of 51.8, pointed with its level of 56.5 points for October to an acceleration of economic activity for the last quarter of the year. While a visible recovery trend took place in both sectors in this period, the rise of the index value for the industry sector in particular to its highest level in the last 15 months draws attention. The fact that the tendency of business volume in the services sector to remain weak, despite the increases in input purchases, came to an end as of October is another positive indicator for this period. Although the vitality in the real sector is expected to continue in the coming period as the interest rate cut decision taken by the CBRT is reflected in market interest rates, the upward movements experienced in the exchange rate will continue to suppress economic activity through costs.