In September 2021, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 2.4 points compared with the previous month, climbing to 50.3.

This increase observed in the index was driven by the industry sector, which rose by 2.4 points over the previous month to 53.9 points. The services sector index, on the other hand, despite recording a 1.5 point increase over the previous month, remained at 48.7 and continued its course below the reference value.

In the industry sector, new orders were observed to maintain their strong course despite losing momentum compared with the previous month, and an increase in production was recorded. In the services sector, although a relative recovery was recorded in business volume compared with the previous month, the stagnant outlook continued in this period as well.

As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which rose to 2.4 in September, once again climbed above the reference value of 50, indicating that economic activity gained pace compared with the previous month.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 2.4 points in September 2021 compared with the previous month, climbing to 53.9.

New orders, which maintained their upward trend at 52.1 points despite losing 7.0 points of momentum compared with the previous month, were decisive in the acceleration observed in the industry sector in September.

Input purchases, which had experienced a sharp decline in August, surged by 32.5 points in this period on the base effect, rising to 64.9 and presenting a highly positive outlook.

Production in the sector thus revived as well, and this sub-index, which recorded a 5.5 point increase over the previous month, stood above the reference value of 50 once again after an interval of 5 months.

In September, the finished goods stock of the industry sector fell to 36.3 with a visible decline of 12.5 points, while the suppliers' delivery time sub-index maintained its positive outlook at 57.9 points despite a slowdown of 0.3 points.

The employment sub-index, which rose by 11.2 points compared with August to 45.3, indicated that despite this recovery the loss of employment in the sector continued.

As a result of these developments, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which rose by 2.4 points over the previous month to 53.9 points, its highest level in the last 8 months, once again stood above the reference value of 50 and gave a signal of recovery across the sector.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 1.5 points in September 2021 compared with the previous month, climbing to 48.7.

Input purchases, which maintained their strong outlook despite falling to their lowest level in the last 6 months at 61.8 points, limited the loss of momentum in the services sector in this period.

The business volume sub-index, which stood at 41.9 despite recording a 3.6 point increase over the previous month, indicated that the stagnation across the services sector continued in September as well.

While the finished goods stock sub-index, which surged by 20.8 points in this period on the base effect and rose to 46.6, presented a significant recovery compared with the previous month, the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which declined by 6.8 points to 43.6, shows that firms experienced problems in the supply of goods and services in this period.

The employment sub-index, which stood at 53.9 despite decreasing by 3.2 points compared with the previous month, indicates that labour demand in the services sector has continued to increase.

Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which rose by 1.5 points in September compared with the previous month to 48.7, continued its course below the reference value and presented a negative outlook for this period.

COMMENTARY:

In the third quarter of the year, which came to an end with September, the SAMEKS Composite Index remained at an average of 50.3 points, falling short of the previous quarter's average of 51.2. SAMEKS thus indicated that economic activity in the real sector lost momentum in this period compared with the previous quarter. Nevertheless, the index value remaining above the reference value of 50 shows that the positive growth process is continuing. While a positive climate prevailed across the industry sector in September, the services sector maintained its stagnant appearance. The continued increase in input purchases in both sectors was seen as a positive development for the real sector, whereas the declines observed in finished goods stocks were the developments that drew attention in a negative sense.