In May 2021 the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 1.4 points compared with the previous month, falling to a value of 51.7.

While the decline of the increase in the services sector index, which lost 1.4 points of momentum compared with the previous month and fell to a level of 51.5, was effective in the decline in question, the industry sector index also declined by 2.3 points compared with the previous month to a level of 49.9.

In the services sector, where the stagnant course in business volume continued, input purchases maintained their strong course in this period as well. In the industry sector, on the other hand, it is seen that the ongoing loss of momentum in new orders affected production negatively.

As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which declined by 1.4 points to a level of 51.7, maintained its course above the reference value of 50 despite losing momentum compared with the previous month, thus indicating that the lively outlook in the real sector is continuing.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 2.3 points in May 2021 compared with the previous month, falling to a level of 49.9.

The decline of new orders by 0.7 points compared with the previous month to a level of 49.1 was effective in the decline observed in the industry sector in this period.

Accordingly, production across the sector also recorded a rapid decrease and declined by 6.8 points at once compared with the previous month to a level of 40.0.

In May a decrease of 8.9 points was recorded in purchases; nevertheless the sub-index in question maintained its course above the reference value at 53.1 points and continued its increase.

The finished goods stock sub-index, which declined by 0.8 points compared with the previous month, stood at a level of 46.2, while the suppliers' delivery time sub-index rose by 4.9 points to a level of 58.9.

In this period the increase in labour demand that began in January across the industry sector continued and the employment sub-index rose by 1.7 points to a level of 61.4.

With the developments in question, the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 2.3 points compared with the previous month to a level of 49.9, and thus the increases that had continued in the sector for 5 months came to an end with the May period.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index declined by 1.4 points in May 2021 compared with the previous month, falling to a level of 51.5.

Business volume relating to the services sector recorded a decline of 0.9 points compared with the previous month and stood at a level of 44.3.

Input purchases, which with a decrease of 0.2 points pointed to a slight loss of momentum compared with the previous month, stood at a level of 64.0 points and maintained their positive outlook in this period as well.

In this period the finished goods stock sub-index declined by 5.1 points at once compared with the previous month to a level of 46.7, while the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, despite losing 1.9 points of momentum, stood at a level of 54.5 and continued its increase.

The employment sub-index, which despite losing 1.6 points of pace compared with the previous month stood at a level of 51.5, showed that the positive course of labour demand across the services sector is continuing.

Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which despite declining by 1.4 points compared with the previous month stood at a level of 51.5, maintained its course above the reference value for the 7th consecutive month.


COMMENTARY:

SAMEKS, which made a positive start to the second quarter of the year with the increase that occurred in April, indicates as of May that a loss of momentum has been experienced in the real sector. The restrictive effect on economic activity of the 17-day “full closure” and the Eid al-Fitr holiday period in the period in question is being felt. Besides the fact that the industry sector, which had recorded uninterrupted expansion since December of last year, pointed to a loss of production in this period, the stagnant outlook observed in business volume relating to the services sector played a decisive role in the loss of pace of the SAMEKS Composite Index. In the light of the fact that the “gradual normalization” process will come to an end as of June and of expectations that many restrictions will be lifted within this scope, a serious increase in momentum is expected for the period ahead.