In September 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index declined by 0.5 points compared to the previous month, falling to a value of 50.2.

The fall of the services sector index by 1.0 points compared to the previous month to the level of 46.6 was effective in the loss of momentum observed in the index. In this period, the industry sector index, which fell by 0.9 points compared to the previous month to 50.1 points, was also observed to have slowed in its rate of increase.

As in the previous period, while the loss of momentum observed in input purchases relating to the services sector was seen to have been reflected negatively on business volume, the contraction experienced in new orders was decisive in the loss of speed that occurred in the industry sector.

As a result of these developments, the SAMEKS Composite Index, which continued its course above the threshold value with 50.2 points despite declining by 0.5 points compared to the previous month, has continued to give positive signals for the third quarter of the year.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Industry Sector Index declined by 0.9 points in September 2020 compared to the previous month, falling to the level of 50.1.

The new orders sub-index, which maintained its course below the reference value with 48.0 points despite recording an increase of 3.7 points compared to the previous month, played a decisive role in the loss of momentum experienced across the sector. In connection with this development, the rate of increase observed in input purchases also declined and the sub-index in question fell by 1.7 points to the level of 51.6.

Despite the contraction observed in new orders, the continuation of purchases caused the finished goods stock relating to the sector to record an increase and the sub-index in question rose by 6.5 points to the level of 51.2.

As a result of these developments, the loss of momentum in the production sub-index that began in August continued in September as well and, despite recording a recovery of 5.1 compared to the previous month, the value in question
remained at the level of 49.8.

Along with the loss of momentum observed in production, the employment increase in the industry sector also lost speed in this period and was realized at the level of 57.5 with a decline of 4.9 points.

As a result; despite a loss of momentum of 0.9 points compared to the previous month, the course of the SAMEKS Industry Index above the reference value of 50 indicates that the recovery in the sector continues.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Services Sector Index declined by 1.0 points in September 2020 compared to the previous month, falling to the level of 46.6.

It is seen that the loss of speed of 5.3 points observed in input purchases relating to the sector was the main determinant of the contraction observed across the sector.

In connection with this development, the business volume sub-index, which fell by 0.7 points compared to the previous month to the level of 40.6, maintained its course below the reference value of 50 and pointed to stagnation with regard to the sector.

The fall of the finished goods stock sub-index by 5.5 points to 43.1 points and the continuation of the weak outlook in the suppliers' delivery time sub-index were the other factors supporting the decline experienced in the services sector in September.

As a result of these developments, the employment sub-index relating to the services sector also declined by 3.2 points compared to the previous month to the level of 44.8 and presented a negative outlook with regard to the labour market.

Thus the SAMEKS Services Sector Index, which fell below the reference value of 50 last month, indicated that the stagnant course in the sector continued in the September period as well.

COMMENTARY:

In the third quarter of the year, in which the effects of COVID-19 have visibly been left behind and the normalization process has accelerated, SAMEKS's average of 52.1 points confirms the positive outlook with regard to the real sector. While the recovery in the industry sector was observed to be more pronounced compared to the services sector throughout the period in question, the third-quarter average of the SAMEKS Industry Sector Index was realized at 52.3 points and the average of the SAMEKS Services Sector Index at the level of 50.0 points. As a result of these developments, we can estimate that Türkiye's economy has entered a positive growth path again as of the third quarter of 2020 and that the positive outlook with regard to the real sector will continue in the last quarter of the year as well.