The Independent Industrialists and Businessmen Association (MÜSİAD), in cooperation with the International Halal Tourism Association (IHATO), has prepared a comprehensive report covering the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic on domestic tourism, post-pandemic expectations and the approaches of tourism professionals

MÜSİAD, Türkiye's largest capital platform, continues to chart a road map on the effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic on the Turkish economy and on sector-based developments through the sectoral reports and scientific studies it prepares.

In this context, a report titled “The Effects of Covid-19 on Domestic Tourism Demand” has most recently been prepared in cooperation between the MÜSİAD New Tourism Resources Development Committee and the International Halal Tourism Association (IHATO).

The report, prepared with the support of academics who are experts in their field from Akdeniz University and Kastamonu University, examines in detail the effects of the pandemic on domestic tourism, tourists' hygiene expectations and their approach to holidays.

The report was prepared in line with data obtained between 23 and 30 April from the opinions of 789 participants aged between 31 and 40, residing in 61 cities of Türkiye, with an average annual holiday budget of less than TRY 5,000. A comprehensive status report was produced with statistics compiled through the electronic survey method.
 

The highlights of the report, prepared with intensive effort, are as follows:

Signal of a Decline in Demand for Antalya, an Increase in Demand for Muğla

According to the report, participants most preferred the destinations of Antalya, Muğla and İzmir respectively for their holidays over the past 3 years. If the pandemic ends within a short time, this destination ranking is not expected to change this year either. However, compared with previous years, the preference rate for Antalya is declining this year while the preference rate for Muğla is rising.

If the “Undecided” Are Persuaded, the Contraction in Demand for Hotels Will Remain at 33 Percent at Most!

39 percent of participants are undecided about holidaying “by staying at a hotel” during 2020. One in every three participants states that they do not want to holiday “by staying at a hotel” this year. However, it is estimated that if conditions emerge that positively affect the undecided, the contraction in demand for hotel holidays can be held within a band of at most 33 percent.

This Year at Least 80 Out of Every 100 People May Head Back to the Warm Seas!

27 percent of participants state that they want to go on holiday as soon as the pandemic is over. On the other hand, the share of those who say they would consider going on holiday if persuaded stands at 53 percent. However, 20 percent of participants say they definitely do not want to go on holiday this year. This most negatively disposed 20 percent segment is also expected to shrink if the pandemic and the adverse psychological conditions it has created improve.

Optimists Need Support, Pessimists Need Persuasion and Motivation!

Participants are split into two groups when it comes to predicting the date the pandemic will end in Türkiye. While a 32 percent segment predicts that the pandemic will end in the near term (May-June), a 28 percent segment predicts that it will end in October at the earliest. This picture reveals that two separate groups, “optimists” and “pessimists”, have formed in close proportions.

A Cyclical Tourist Profile: “The Anxious Willing”

Seven out of every ten participants think the virus could infect them too and are anxious. The majority of participants, at a rate of 44 percent, state that they would definitely consider going on holiday only once the number of cases across Türkiye falls below 10. This indicates that participants are “anxious”. On the other hand, an inversely proportional relationship is observed between the decline in the number of cases and demand for tourism. So much so that when the number of cases across Türkiye falls below one thousand, the share of those who say they would definitely consider going on holiday reaches 40 percent, and when the findings up to this point are read together it becomes clear that, despite being anxious, people are also “willing” to go on holiday. In this framework, anxiety should be dispelled by sustaining the success achieved in the fight against the pandemic. Beyond a certain threshold, the motivation of demand regarding the desire to take a holiday should be increased through the cooperation of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the sector.

The month of the “big decision”: June!

If the pandemic is completely over in June, 55 percent of participants say they could take a holiday this summer by staying at a hotel with peace of mind. For most participants, June marks both the month in which the end of the pandemic is expected and the month that is critical for their own plans. Therefore, it appears that if case numbers across the country fall below 100 in June, 56 percent of participants will become psychologically ready for a holiday. On the other hand, 88 percent of participants state that they go on holiday after June. This reveals that the success to be achieved in the fight against the pandemic by the end of June will critically affect the decision regarding domestic tourism demand.

The Pandemic Has Infected the “Wallet” Too. But There Is No Doing Without a Holiday Either!

Eight out of every ten participants state that they have suffered economic harm from the pandemic in some way, and seven state that they are anxious about the future of their job/profession. However, the share of those who say they will definitely not go on holiday this year corresponds to two people out of ten. In other words, six of the eight people who suffered economic harm from the pandemic and five of the seven people who state that they are anxious about the future of their job/profession do not say “I have given up going on holiday” despite these difficulties.

“Holiday Without a Hotel, Minimalist Facility!”

It is seen that the state of “staying at home” has made 27 out of every 100 participants “determined” to go on holiday, and 53 of them willing to go on holiday “if they are persuaded”. Despite this, the share of those who say they will definitely not go on holiday stands at 20 percent. However, when participants were asked “Do you plan to take a holiday by staying at a hotel before the 2020 season ends?”, the share of those answering “no” to this question came in at 33 percent. In other words, while the share of those saying “I do not want to take a holiday” is 20 percent, the share of those saying “I do not want to take a holiday by staying at a hotel” takes shape at 33 percent. The 13 percent segment that makes up the difference between the two groups is estimated to be inclined towards a holiday search outside hotels. This suggests that the situation will generate demand shifting from large-capacity accommodation businesses such as hotels towards smaller-scale and more autonomous types of accommodation businesses such as boutique hotels, villas and bungalows. Indeed, this is thought to be one of the reasons behind the signal observed as a decline in demand for the Antalya destination and an increase for the Muğla destination. On the other hand, it is estimated that this situation could also increase demand for destinations such as the Black Sea region, which hosts mostly small-scale facilities.

A Critical Step in the Process: Building Trust in Certification!

The share of those who definitely trust the quality/standardization certificates that hotels have obtained or will obtain to show that they meet hygiene criteria after Covid-19 was determined as 10 percent, while the share of those who definitely cannot trust them was 17 percent. This rate is consistent with the share of those who state that they will definitely not go on holiday this year (20 percent). However, the rate of partial trust in the certificate stands at 73 percent. Developments over time that increase the trust of this group could raise the rate of trust in the certificate to a higher level. On the other hand, it should not be overlooked that participants are making an assessment about a certificate whose criteria and implementation have not yet been determined.

The Toughest Group: “The Anxious Unwilling”

Detailed analyses determined that participants in certain specific groups hold more negative attitudes towards a 2020 holiday than other participants. Accordingly, it was seen that once a safe stage is reached regarding the pandemic and the necessary measures are taken, the groups in domestic tourism demand that need the most attention and persuasion are women, individuals aged between 31 and 40, families with children and individuals with an income level below TRY 5,000. The more of these criteria an individual meets at once, the weaker their likelihood of taking part in tourism during 2020 becomes. Compared with other groups, these individuals have both higher levels of “anxiety” and a lower desire to go on holiday. The analyses conducted in the “quantitative findings: detailed analyses” section of the study determined that, independently of other conditions, as anxiety within the group increases, the desire to go on holiday also decreases significantly. In other words, it is stated that the main strategy for increasing the desire to go on holiday must be built on combating the factors that create the feeling of anxiety.


CLICK TO EXAMINE THE REPORT ON DOMESTIC TOURISM IN TÜRKİYE DURING COVID-19