In January 2022, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose by 1.4 points compared with the previous month to a value of 50.2.

While the industry sector index, which recorded an increase of 1.6 points compared with the previous month and rose to a value of 53.0, played the determining role in this acceleration observed in the index, the services sector index, despite its increase of 1.7 points, continued to remain below the reference value in this period as well at 49.7 points.

While the recovery observed in new orders was influential in the increase observed in the industry sector in this period, in the services sector it is seen that, despite the increase in input purchases compared with the previous month, the stagnant picture in business volume persists.

As a result of the developments in question, the seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which stood at the level of 50.2, rose above the reference value once again and pointed to the vitality of economic activity in January.

Industry Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 1.6 points in January 2022 compared with the previous month to the level of 53.0.

The rise in new orders by 3.5 points compared with the previous month to 53.1 points was the determinant of the acceleration observed in the industry sector.

Input purchases, which stood at the level of 65.1 despite losing 13.5 points of momentum compared with the previous month, maintained their positive outlook in this period as well.

As a result of these developments, industrial production recorded an increase of 6.0 points compared with the previous month; nevertheless, the sub-index, at the level of 46.7, maintained its negative outlook. While the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which recorded an increase of 5.7 points and rose to the level of 55.5, pointed to a considerable acceleration in the supply of goods in this period, the finished goods stock sub-index, which recorded an increase of 5.0 points and rose to the level of 45.5, maintained its course below the reference value.

In this period the employment sub-index recorded an increase of 3.9 points compared with the previous month and rose to the level of 55.8, and the positive outlook of labour supply and demand across the industry sector continued. Thus the Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which rose by 1.6 points compared with the previous month to 53.0 points, pointed to the fact that the increase across the sector gained pace in January.

Services Sector SAMEKS Index

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 1.7 points in January 2022 compared with the previous month to the level of 49.7.

While the rise in input purchases by 4.4 points compared with the previous month to the level of 68.8 was influential in this development, the business volume sub-index, which decreased by 2.9 points and rose to the level of 37.7, maintained its negative outlook in this period as well. While the suppliers' delivery time sub-index, which recorded an increase of 9.3 points and rose to the level of 56.5, pointed to a considerable recovery in the supply of goods and services in January, the finished goods stock sub-index, which stood at the level of 44.1, maintained its negative outlook.

The employment sub-index, on the other hand, despite having recorded an increase of 2.0 points compared with the previous month, maintained its course below the reference value at 49.2 points and maintained its negative outlook of December in this period as well.

Thus the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which fell below the reference value of 50 last month and signalled a loss of momentum for the sector, maintained its stagnant picture in January as well, despite the recovery recorded.

COMMENTARY:

The seasonally and calendar adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which presented a negative outlook by falling below the reference value of 50 in the final month of the year we have left behind, rose to the level of 50.2 in January and pointed to the fact that economic activity has gained momentum. While the acceleration of the recovery in the industry sector, particularly with the increase in new orders, drew attention in this period, it is also seen that with the achievement of stability in the exchange rate the advance purchases of companies in the sector have decreased. In the services sector, on the other hand, despite the relative recovery recorded compared with the previous month, it is observed that the stagnant outlook which began in December continued in January as well; the contractions experienced in business volume come to the fore. The return to positive of the suppliers' delivery time sub-indices, which followed a negative course in both sectors last month, points to the fact that the disruptions companies experienced in the supply of goods and services have come to an end as of this period.

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